Problem
After months of negotiations, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal to end the war in Gaza, exchange Israeli and Palestinian prisoners, and surge humanitarian aid to the beleaguered strip.
The agreement, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the US, is due to take effect on January 19th and will take six weeks to complete. But there is a high risk that Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu will stall the implementation of the deal after the first of three phases and accelerate Israel’s annexation of West Bank territory to appease his far-right coalition.
Successfully stabilising Gaza will depend on the return of a revitalised Palestinian Authority (PA). But this is complicated by the PA’s deepening domestic unpopularity, rising financial fragility and growing authoritarianism. Hamas also needs to support any new security and governance arrangements for post-conflict Gaza. While the Islamist group has been battered by months of fighting, it continues to hold a veto over Gaza’s future and will not disarm so long as Israel’s occupation continues.
Solution
Given the lack of trust between all sides, Gaza will likely require an international monitoring mission to oversee the implementation of a ceasefire deal and support deconfliction efforts. In private discussions with ECFR, Arab states have indicated their willingness to support this as long as the deal comes with a viable political track to end Israel’s occupation and fulfil Palestinian self-determination.
While resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a long-term diplomatic effort, Europeans will need to find immediate ways to demonstrate their support for a sovereign Palestinian state—including by recognising the State of Palestine according to the 1967 borders and banning Israeli settlement trade.
Alongside this, Europeans must ramp up their support for Palestinian reconciliation (starting with the formation of an independent administrative committee to oversee Gaza’s rehabilitation and governance) and exert pressure on the PA to restore Palestine’s democratic fabric. In parallel, European officials should explore via Arab interlocuters Hamas’s willingness to demobilise its fighters in Gaza and suspend armed attacks against Israel in exchange for significant international moves towards Palestinian statehood.
Saudi Arabia’s role is vital: Europeans should form a clear strategic partnership with Riyadh to deploy towards the American and Israeli governments. At its heart should be the “Arab Vision” plan, largely ignored by Joe Biden’s administration, which offers Israel full regional integration if Israel allows a reformed PA to return Gaza and implements of a two-state solution.
Donald Trump’s team should re-energise the plan once they assume office—and use its leverage to press Israel into making the necessary compromises. Working together, European and Arab states should convince Trump that ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a way that enables full Palestinian self-determination and independence remains the only pathway to Saudi Arabia normalisation with Israel.
Context
After previous rounds of negotiations failed, the Israeli government and Hamas have been under growing pressure to end the fighting. The humanitarian toll in Gaza and Hizbullah’s decision to ink a separate ceasefire deal with Israel in November has made Hamas more flexible on transitional arrangements.
Most decisive, however, appears to have been be pressure from the incoming Trump administration on Netanyahu to accept the deal. Many Israelis accuse the veteran prime minister of having previously deliberately undermined ceasefire talks to avoid a political crisis with his far-right coalition partners.
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.