TL;DR
Today, the crypto market faces a pivotal event with the expiration of $2.27 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options. According to Deribit data, 19,364 Bitcoin contracts and 141,185 Ethereum contracts are scheduled to expire, with notional amounts of $1.81 billion and $459 million, respectively. BTC options have a put-call ratio of 0.65 and a maximum pain point of $97,000, reflecting optimistic sentiment, although the current price ($94,000) is still below this benchmark. Ethereum has a put-call ratio of 0.48 and its biggest pain point is $3,450, but the current price is hovering around $3,250. These indicators suggest that the price may move towards these levels in order to maximize losses on open positions.
A recent report from Glassnode highlights a significant decline in “hot capital”, which refers to short-term speculative activity. This is down 66.7% since December, from $96.2 billion to $32 billion. This drop in liquidity and activity reflects a decline in confidence among short-term traders and could increase volatility as large trades can have a more pronounced impact on prices.
Market Impact: Breakout or Consolidation?
There are signs of bearish pressure in the market. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin registered a slight gain of 0.17% to reach $94,000, but faces challenges in sustaining key levels. Meanwhile, Ethereum has fallen by 1.17% and its current price is $3,250. While altcoins such as Cardano (+0.99%) are showing some strength, other altcoins such as Binance Coin (-0.36%), XRP (-1.45%), and Solana (-2.41%) are It reflects the overall reaction.
Despite the uncertainty, analysts are divided. Some predict that Bitcoin could rally towards the maximum pain point at $97,000, while others warn of further decline if it loses the key support at $92,000. Additionally, rumors of a possible mass sale of Bitcoin by the US government and concerns about inflation continue to fuel market anxiety.
This major expiration will likely determine the market’s next move, focusing on whether Bitcoin and Ethereum can maintain their critical levels or whether the current situation will deepen the ongoing correction. There is.
