Hello. Welcome to today’s Fitz File. In just over two weeks this fall, millions of Americans will vote for President Trump. What will they do when Trump is no longer in office (hopefully in January of this year)?
What is noteworthy about President Trump is that his approval rating has hardly changed this year. According to Gallup, President Trump’s approval rating was 42% as of last month. It has hovered in the 40-something percent range, not just this year, but throughout most of the president’s term.
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In 2016, Trump said he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue in New York City and shoot someone dead and not lose any voters.
Unfortunately, it seems he was right about one thing. This year alone, the president has mismanaged a devastating pandemic and resulting economic crisis, leaving more people unemployed than since the Great Depression. He became the third president in U.S. history to be impeached. He has been unable to stand up to Russia for imposing bounties on American troops overseas, and America’s standing in the world in general is in tatters.
The old adage about presidents running for re-election is, “Is your life better than it was four years ago?” For almost every traditional metric, the answer is no. Our own health and that of our loved ones is at risk. Our jobs and economic security are at risk. Our allies around the world don’t trust us.
Still, President Trump’s approval rating remains unchanged. why?
My first theory is that people don’t like to admit they were wrong. Even if they personally think they made a mistake voting for Trump four years ago, they won’t admit it. He wouldn’t admit it to himself, and certainly not to the pollsters who called him. However, we are not completely convinced that this is the case, as this contradicts positive national polling for Joe Biden.
I think the second thing is that fewer people identify as Republicans in the Trump era. I don’t know if they are re-registering as Democrats, are independents, or are not involved in politics at all, but they no longer want to be associated with the Republican Party because President Trump has turned them off. is. This may explain why Trump’s ratings remain high among people who identify as Republicans. Because even as more people leave the Republican Party, only the president’s most ardent supporters will remain. However, there is no explanation as to why President Trump’s approval rating has barely hovered around 40 percent. This is because it is a national indicator (rather than a party-specific indicator).
A third explanation is that Trump’s ideology (or should we say Trumpism) is not going away. This populist, anti-globalist worldview spewing racism, xenophobia, and bigotry will still have millions of supporters whether President Trump is in the Oval Office or not. What would millions of people do if Trump were not their leader?
Perhaps they will rally behind a new leader or split from the Republican Party altogether and form a separate party. Some say they will take up arms if Trump loses.
President Trump’s approval rating shows that Trumpism itself will not magically disappear even if Trump becomes president. And that is very worrying for the future of the republic.
Days until voting day: 16
WTF moments in Congress this week
The Senate Judiciary Committee held a Supreme Court nomination confirmation hearing for Judge Amy Coney Barrett last week (despite multiple members of the committee testing positive for COVID-19). Judge Barrett’s entire testimony and answer to questions from senators could have been, “I defend number five.”
Reading list:
Democrats begin massive spending to take over state governments (Huffington Post)
The energy and enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is evident at every step of the voting process. Redistricting is critical to redistricting because state legislatures redraw congressional maps every 10 years, and this election is a great chance to level the political playing field.
