The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October U.S. CPI data today. For investors around the world, U.S. CPI data is one of the most closely tracked economic indicators.
The US Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to curb inflation, keeping them at 5.25% and 5.50% for 14 months. Inflation now appears to be under control and the Fed has cut interest rates by 75 basis points. First, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps in September, then by 25 bps at the FOMC meeting in November.
With inflation on the decline, the Federal Reserve has begun a campaign to cut interest rates.
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The US inflation rate fell from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.4% in September 2024, the lowest level since February 2021. But it was the US annual core consumer price inflation rate that took the market by surprise last month. Excludes items such as food and energy. Core inflation in September was 3.3%, up slightly from the three-year low of 3.2% hit in the previous two months.
US inflation data for October will be released on November 13, 2024 at 8:30 a.m. ET or 7:00 p.m. India Standard Time (IST). October’s consumer price index will be released on Wednesday, the producer price index and weekly unemployment insurance claims will be released on Thursday, and retail sales will be released on Friday.
Market experts expect US October CPI data to hold annual core inflation at 3.3%, but there are potential upside risks from pro-growth fiscal policy, tariffs and immigration changes. The market may be surprised if core or headline inflation shows a significant increase.
Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and FOMC members may be currently in a state of coordination. After President Trump’s victory, markets are saying that inflation will recover. President Trump’s policies on tax cuts and tariffs could cause inflation, making a Fed rate cut campaign imminent.
The market expects the pace of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow towards 2025, and there is a possibility that there will be a pause before further rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are up nearly 36% over the past 12 months, and the Dow 30 is up 29%. How the 2024 Santa Claus rally will play out remains to be seen by the time Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025.
