Almost 20 countries are responsible for the surge in global tourist emissions, and efforts to curb the trend have been unsuccessful.
This is the main finding of our new study, published today in Nature Communications. This represents the most rigorous and comprehensive analysis of tourism emissions conducted to date.
The study brings together multiple datasets, including datasets published directly by 175 governments over an 11-year period (2009-2020). It uses the UN-endorsed Measuring Sustainable Tourism framework and draws on tourism expenditure and emissions intensity data from national accounts.
Considering the broader context, the findings reveal serious challenges ahead. The United Nations Environment Program reports that current global emissions need to be reduced by 42% by 2030 (57% by 2035). Otherwise, the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius will be lost.
However, global tourist emissions are growing twice as fast as the global economy. Our research shows that between 2009 and 2019 emissions increased by 40%, from 3.7 Gt in 2009 (7.3% of global emissions) to 5.2 Gt in 2019 (8.8% of global emissions). It is clear that there has been an increase.
Although global tourist emissions fell dramatically from 2020 to 2021 due to the impact of COVID-19, the recovery to pre-pandemic levels was rapid.
Tourismemissions.org, CC BY-ND
Significant growth without technical modifications
Tourism-related emissions grew at an annual rate of 3.5% from 2009 to 2019. By comparison, the global economy as a whole grew at an annual rate of 1.5% during this period. If this growth rate continues, global tourist emissions will double over the next 20 years.
The carbon intensity per dollar spent by tourists is 30% higher than the global economy average and four times higher than the services sector.
The main factor behind the increase in emissions is the high growth in tourism demand. The rapidly growing carbon footprint is mainly due to aviation (21%), the use of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles (17%), and utilities such as electricity supply (16%).
The slow efficiency gains from technology are being overwhelmed by this increase in demand.
Aviation accounts for half of the direct emissions from tourism, making it the Achilles heel of global tourism emissions. Despite decades of promises, the global air transport system has proven incapable of decarbonizing through new technologies.
Tourismemissions.org, CC BY-ND
20 countries monopolize emissions
Our research reveals alarming inequalities in emissions growth between countries. The United States, China, and India accounted for 60% of the increase in tourism emissions from 2009 to 2019. By 2019, these three countries alone accounted for 39% of total global tourism emissions.
Three-quarters of the world’s total tourist emissions are generated in just 20 countries, with the remaining 25% shared among 155 countries. Remarkably, there is currently a 100-fold difference in per capita tourist emissions between the most and least traveled countries. .
Of the top 20, the United States had the highest tourism carbon footprint in 2019 (both as a foreign destination and as a national tourist), at approximately 1 gigaton. This accounts for 19% of all global tourism carbon emissions and is growing at an annual rate of 3.2%.
In 2019, the United States’ tourism carbon footprint was equivalent to 3 tons per resident, ranking it 12th in the world among countries with the highest per capita tourism carbon footprint.
As a destination, the UK ranked seventh in the world with 128 megatonnes (2.5% of the total). In 2019, UK residents generated 2.8 tonnes of emissions per person, ranking 15th in the world.
Australia has the 14th largest tourism carbon footprint in the world (82 megatonnes). Resident carbon dioxide emissions per tourist in 2019 were 3.4 tons (8th highest in the world). This highlights the increasing emissions from long-haul air travel, both domestically and internationally.
In 2019, New Zealand’s carbon footprint per visitor was 3.1 tonnes per resident (10th highest in the world). As in Australia, reliance on long-distance international travel is an issue that cannot be ignored.
Tourism was the subject of discussion for the first time at this year’s COP29 conference. Getty Images
Four paths to decarbonizing tourism
This year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29) included tourism for the first time. The United Nations Tourism Office endorsed our research and recognized that tourism currently contributes to 8.8% of total global emissions.
The paper reported that COP29 “marks a turning point where ambition meets action and vision turns into a commitment to positive change for a better future for the planet (…)”.
However, our study shows that the combination of increased tourism demand on the one hand and failure to improve technological efficiency on the other hand poses major barriers to carbon reduction through tourism.
Nevertheless, we have identified four pathways towards stabilizing and reducing global tourism emissions.
Measure tourist carbon footprint and identify hotspots. Our research shows evidence that the tourism subsector, including aviation, energy supply, and vehicle use, is driving high emissions growth. These hotspots must move onto a 10% annual emission reduction pathway by 2050.
Avoid over-development of tourism and identify criteria for sustainable growth. National tourism decarbonization strategies now need to define and implement sustainable growth targets, most urgently in the 20 highest-emitting tourism destinations.
Shift focus to domestic and short-haul markets and block long-haul markets. Actively managing the growth in demand for air travel is the most obvious first step, and this may include regulating demand for long-haul air travel.
Address inequalities between countries by taking into account the social costs of carbon emissions. Controlling the current pattern of relentless growth in long-haul air travel is consistent with the more socially just approach to tourism needed to address these inequalities.
The fundamental aim of our research is to provide policy makers and industry leaders with a clearer understanding of tourism’s impact on global emissions. The challenge is therefore to develop evidence-based policies and regulations to urgently achieve tourism decarbonization.
The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of Stefan Gössling, Manfred Lenzen, and Futu Faturay, members of the research team on this project and co-authors of the Nature Communications paper on which this article is based.
