In his announcement that he will not seek a second term, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney emphasized the need for a new generation of leadership in America.
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On Wednesday, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney announced he would not run for re-election in 2024. On the surface, Mr. Romney’s decision should have minimal impact on the election, and his seat should remain safely in Republican hands. But it’s still notable because it marks the departure of one of the few Republican senators who had a moderate voting record or was a vocal opponent of former President Donald Trump.
Of course, the Senate was Romney’s second (actually third) career. Mr. Romney was elected governor of Massachusetts in 2002 after a successful business career as co-founder of Bain Capital, part of a longstanding relationship between the Bay State and the moderate Republican governor. He ran for president twice and won the Republican nomination in 2012, but lost the general election to then-President Barack Obama.
This was the last time the Republican Party chose a presidential candidate other than Trump. Since 2016, Republican voters have turned away from Mr. Romney’s establishment-aligned brand of Republican Party and embraced Mr. Trump’s brash populism. 2018 was a year in which many moderate and anti-Trump Republicans left Congress, but Romney went against the grain and elected to the U.S. Senate from Utah (home to many members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints). was elected. Local Republicans (including Romney himself) have become more skeptical of Trump than anyone else). Since then, he has vocally opposed the party’s new direction. Most notably, he convicted Trump in both of his impeachment trials.
Mr. Romney also defeated the right wing of his party on a wide range of votes, from confirming Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to revoking President Trump’s emergency declaration to fund border wall construction, and received a moderate number of votes. I got my grades. Mr. Romney’s DW-NOMINATE score (a measure of ideology based on roll call votes, where 1 represents the most conservative and -1 represents the most liberal) was 0.288, leaving all but three incumbents is more moderate than all Republican senators.
Both groups of the Republican Party (Trump opponents and ideological moderates) are now endangered species, and Romney’s resignation will further culminate them. Of the 17 Republicans who voted to impeach or convict Trump on any of his charges, only six remain in Congress, including Romney. Additionally, the number of Senate Republicans with DW-NOMINATE scores below 0.300 is at its lowest point in at least 40 years.
Romney’s anti-Trump and moderate background has made him relatively unpopular with Utah Republican voters, and may have indirectly contributed to his decision to retire. Only 56% of Utah’s registered Republican voters approved of Mr. Romney’s job performance, according to a poll conducted Aug. 7-14 by Dan Jones & Associates. That might not sound too bad, but 56% support is pretty mediocre among members of your own party. (By contrast, 81% of registered Republican voters nationwide have a favorable impression of Trump, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.)
Romney may have declined to run for re-election for fear of losing the Republican primary, as former Sen. Jeff Flake, a prominent Trump critic, did in 2018. The same poll asked about hypothetical primary matchups, and Mr. Romney received 45% support among Republicans. That’s pretty anemic for incumbents who are used to dancing for renomination.
Meanwhile, no other candidate received more than 7% of the vote in the poll, and only 27% said they would vote for the other unnamed candidate. Additionally, polls show Romney’s approval rating among Republicans is increasing. In May, only 40 percent rated his performance. That makes Romney’s path to renomination perhaps clearer than ever, making the timing of the announcement interesting. So when Romney cites his age as a factor in his retirement video, maybe we should just take him at his word. (Mr. Romney is 76 years old, but would have been 83 at the end of a potential second term.)
So what’s next for Utah’s Type 1 Senate seat? Romney’s retirement is unlikely to lead to a competitive general election next fall. Utah is so red that it voted for Romney by more than 20 percentage points in 2020, even though it turned Democratic during the Trump era, and has yet to vote for a Democrat. The Beehive State has won a statewide election since 1996 (indeed, anti-Trump independent Evan McMullin lost to Republican Sen. Mike Lee in 1996), but… And anti-Trump independent Evan McMullin still lost to Republican Sen. Mike Lee in 2022. 10.4 points even though the Democrats stood aside and nominated no one to favor McMullin’s victory! )
So the key issue to watch is the state’s June 25 Republican primary, and specifically whether the party’s nominee will be more conservative or pro-Trump than Romney. For now, the answer seems to be yes. In the field of candidates and potential candidates, there is no one more iconoclastic than Romney. State House Speaker Brad Wilson, who has already set up a review committee, has billed himself as a “defender of conservatives” and in 2020 passed a Congressional resolution honoring President Trump after his first impeachment. submitted. But for old-school Republicans, he may be the most palatable choice. The second candidate, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, attacked Romney for supporting “wokeness” and impeaching Trump. Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes, who co-chaired President Trump’s re-election campaign in the state and sought to overturn the 2020 election results, is also rumored to be a candidate.
But there’s still plenty of time for a Romney-like candidate to jump in. There are still a significant number of Republicans in Utah who are skeptical of Trump. For example, former state Rep. Becky Edwards is a Republican who voted for President Biden but lost by a narrow margin. Utah’s 2nd District Special Primary Election. If the conservative and pro-Trump votes are split between multiple candidates, one person could win the Senate primary. But of course, none of the options have Mr. Romney’s name recognition or economic advantage. So his resignation is sure to be a blow to Republicans who don’t like what’s happening to their party.
