Today is 5 days until the US general election.
In July, I wrote a blog looking at the state of the campaign with 100 days left until the election. With five days left and the beginning of the end of this campaign, I would like to revisit the statements of the major political handicappers.
cook political report
Cook’s rankings show that 290 Electoral College (EC) votes are solid, likely, or minority for Democrats, and 123 EC votes are toss-ups for the EC, solid, likely, or minority. The minority vote is 125 Republicans. You need 270 to win.
sabbath crystal ball
Sabato’s rankings show that 290 Electoral College (EC) votes are Democratic, likely or minority, 85 EC votes are toss-ups, and 163 EC votes are Republican. .
Win with 270
Win’s 270 is the same as Sabato.
There are some notable changes here. The Cook Political Report threw Texas into turmoil (the state last voted Democratic in a presidential election in 1976). In all analyses, Arizona has turned lean Democratic, Iowa/Ohio has turned lean Republican, and Florida has reverted back to lean Democratic. Historically, Florida’s recent election results are not all that surprising, given that recent elections have always been close.
However, the move in Arizona/Iowa/Ohio deserves more attention, as President Trump won Arizona by 3.5 points, Iowa by 9.4 points, and Ohio by 8 points in 2016. Arizona’s changing demographics brought the state within striking distance in 2016. And if Trump’s support is collapsing there, that would bode well for Joe Biden elsewhere across the Sunbelt (Florida, Georgia, the North). Carolina). If Iowa/Ohio is also trending away from Trump, then a very large portion of the demographics in these states (broadly white, working class, rural voters) align with Trump’s political base. That doesn’t bode well for Trump’s political fortunes. . This puts Biden in a good position to rebuild the blue wall in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin if Trump does poorly in Iowa/Ohio.
With just over 100 hours left, I’d rather be in the Biden camp than the Trump camp. But as the tallies get closer in some battleground states, it could be some time before a definitive winner is known. And as I wrote just 95 days ago, President Trump could use this period of uncertainty to seek victory by forcing states to cancel prematurely. Vote counting operations like Bush vs. Gore.
However, this argument becomes more difficult when the counts are not close. That’s why we need the biggest victory possible, not just for electoral certainty, but for the complete and utter repudiation of Trumpism and everything it stands for. The greater the victory, the greater the task that Biden and the Democratic Party will have to govern us through this pandemic. Every vote counts. If you haven’t already, make plans to join at https://iwillvote.com/.
WTF moments in Congress this week
Martha McSally did everything she could to appeal to Trump and his base
He introduced her as follows.
“Come quick. Quick, quick, come on, come on. One minute! One minute, Martha! They don’t want to hear this, Martha. Come on, let’s go. Quick, quick, quick. Come on. ” pic.twitter.com/3caQZaAmx9
— Yashar Ali🐘 (@yashar) October 28, 2020
(This moment wasn’t technically Congress, but it featured a senator and it was 5 days before Election Day, so I’ll let it slide)
Arizona Republican Sen. Martha McSally is currently trailing in the polls against her Democratic challenger. At Trump’s rally in the state yesterday, he scolded her and told her to hurry up to the stage with him. What people do to maintain power…
reading list
Here’s what LGBTQ+ people (they) are fighting for in this election
Biden vows to pass Equality Act within first 100 days in LGBTQ interview (Reuters)
Why it has to be Biden (The Economist)
memo for the future
Thank you to everyone who read Fitzfile. With just over 100 hours left until Election Day, I probably won’t have time for another post before the election (I’ll be knee-deep in last-minute relief for both my voting efforts and my own anxiety). I promised to write about the election on this blog, so this may be my last Fitzfile post. Thanks to Google, this blog has nearly 1,000 page views. Audiences in 27 states and the District of Columbia all visit this blog at least once. Thank you to everyone who has followed this space over the past few months. This has been a great outlet for me during the pandemic.
I don’t know what I’m going to do with this space or if I’ll continue blogging. But no matter who wins on November 3rd, we encourage you to stay involved in politics. Our country still needs support to recover from this crisis.
Democracy is yours,
T
