If it feels like just the other week we were all watching the women’s WTA Finals and the men’s ATP Finals, well, it almost was: Every year, tennis’s brief off-season seems to become even more brief—and whatever rest a couple of its top players might have enjoyed was stolen away by some unwanted drama. Both world number one Jannik Sinner and number two Iga Swiatek have been dogged by complicated accusations regarding doping—accusations which are still playing out in some upcoming hearings. (To be sure: Neither Sinner nor Swiatek appear to have received any performance benefits from these violations, which have already been investigated.) In any case, here we are, with the season’s so-called “friendly slam,” a.k.a. the Australian Open, upon us, the first-round matches kicking off today.
Sinner, the defending champion, would seem to be the odds-on favorite to notch his third slam—he was nearly unbeatable as last season rolled on—and aside from a potentially tricky first-round opponent in Chile’s Nicolas Jarry, his path to the finals looks almost ridiculously unencumbered. Of course, we watch the slams for shocking upsets and breakout stars, but we’re more inclined than usual to call Sinner the one to beat here. Obviously, Carlos Alcaraz would love to prove us wrong, and if he can quickly regain some of the form and more of the mojo he seemed to lose last season (after only taking the French Open and Wimbledon titles), he’ll be contending for the title—as will Alexander Zverev (perennially the best player never to have won a slam) and Taylor Fritz—at fourth seed, the highest-ranked American in Melbourne, who should also have a rather gilded path to the later stages.
There is also always Novak Djokovic, arriving in Australia as the lowly seventh seed, but with a new coach (the recently retired Andy Murray) and armfuls of slams under his belt. Can he recapture the form that eluded him at last year’s big tournaments (aside from the Olympics, where he took gold) and win a record 25th slam? Here’s where we get into trouble with our predictions: While we don’t quite have it in us to bet on him, we know far, far better than to bet against him. We’ll also be keeping a keen eye on a couple of lefties in Britain’s Jack Draper and our own Ben Shelton, both of whom are well-poised for major leaps in their careers, along with American Frances Tiafoe. Even if the latter doesn’t speak loudly with his game, his new endorsement deal with Lululemon will likely make him a colorful must-watch all on its own.
As for the women’s side (which, it should be said, seems more consistently packed with top-tier talent than the men’s, which runs a bit hot and cold): Like Sinner, defending champion (two years running!) and world number one Aryna Sabalenka, in a rational and logical world, should be a lock to repeat yet again. Standing in her way: American Sloane Stephens in the first round, along with—potentially—Russia’s Mirra Andreeva (the only teenager in the top 100 and someone to keep a very sharp eye on) and the always fierce (but especially so recently) Qinwen Zheng of China.
