Round 22 of the Premier League is likely to be an important match.
Leading Liverpool looked destined to drop points against Brentford, but Darwin Nuñez’s double in added time in the second half gave them a 2-0 victory. That victory became even more significant when Arsenal lost a two-goal lead against Aston. Back to the villa later that day.
There’s still a long way to go, but let’s take a look at how the Premier League title race unfolds after the drama of the latest round, and how the stats on Opta change quickly.
Joy to Darwin/James Gill – Danehouse/GettyImages
Arsenal’s draw leaves Liverpool six points clear at the top of the table, with the added bonus of a game away to Everton next month.
There’s no question about that, it’s a huge advantage at this point in the season.
That is reflected in the statistics, with Opta winning a whopping 91.5% of the Premier League trophy for Liverpool in his first season at Anfield, giving Arne Slott the Premier League trophy. No team is more likely to finish in first place than Liverpool.
Mikel Arteta knows there are gaps that need to be filled if Arsenal are to finally win the title this year. The statistics are definitely not on his side, with the Gunners only having an 8.2% chance of taking the title from Liverpool.
However, this is not a race between two horses. Eighth-placed Manchester City still have a 0.2% chance of completing the most amazing title comeback in history, while highly rated Nottingham Forest have a 0.1% chance.
Newcastle United and Chelsea, who sit fourth and fifth respectively, are not given any hope of winning the big competition.
rank
club
Probability of winning the title
1.
liverpool
91.5%
2.
arsenal
8.2%
3.
manchester city
0.2%
4.
nottingham forest
0.1%
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