November 21, 2024 06:00 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Click to view valid 1Z-12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Thursday, November 21, 2024 05:18:01 UTC (Print Edition | | ) Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table SPC AC 210518 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Wednesday, November 20, 2024 11:18 PM CST Valid 211200Z – 221200Z …No severe thunderstorm areas forecast… …Summary… Southern New England Thursday morning. A few thunderstorms are possible across the region. …Southern New England… A strong upper-level low will move southeast from the Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. This evolution will promote low-level warm advection across southern New England as the surface low repositions south of Long Island and off the mid-Atlantic coast. Forecast observations suggest that weak upwelling buoyancy develops north of this boundary as the midlevel decline rate increases rapidly as the 500 mb temperature cools before the trough approaches. The strongest updrafts may exceed the levels required for lightning discharge, but this should be primarily before 18z. The deepest convection is then concentrated offshore. ..Darrow/Wendt.. November 21, 2024 Click to get WUUS01 PTSDY1 Product Notes: Next 1st day outlook expected by 1300Z Top/Latest 2nd day outlook/Today’s Outlook/Forecast Products/Home
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