December 31, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Tuesday, December 31, 2024 16:25:53 UTC (Print version | | ) Stochastic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table SPC AC 311625 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Effective Tuesday, December 31, 2024 311630Z – 011200Z …There is a risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Kentucky to the mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening. …Overview… A few isolated Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail, and brief tornadoes are possible across parts of the central Appalachians today. of the mid-Atlantic. …from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic region…A strong negatively tilted shortwave trough moves from the upper Ohio Valley into New York/Pennsylvania today, with associated midwater top speeds of 80-100 knots in the Carolinas. cross the state. Strong large-scale forcing and low-level warm advection develop multiple lines/clusters of low-level convection (some with lightning) over parts of Ohio/Kentucky/Tennessee/West Virginia Sufficient lift is generated. This activity will rapidly move eastward during the day, cross the central Appalachians, and enter the mid-Atlantic region this afternoon or evening. Forecast soundings indicate lower mid-level temperatures, resulting in higher rates of steep decline. This is expected to continue the threat of thunderstorms into tonight. Low-level moisture is quite limited, with predicted CAPE values of less than 500 J/kg. Nevertheless, the low- and mid-level wind fields are very strong and can easily mix together in more organized convection. Also, low-level shear forces are strong enough to support updraft rotation (as already noted this morning in several cells in Kentucky), leading to short-term tornadoes and occasional may pose a hail hazard. ..Heart.. December 31, 2024 Click to get WUUS01 PTSDY1 Product Notes: Next 1st day outlook is expected by 2000Z Top/Latest 2nd day outlook/Today’s outlook/ Prediction Products/Home
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