After such historic developments over the past two years, it was only a matter of time before Bitcoin bear market predictions took over the crypto discussion. Several experts and experts have opined on when the digital asset market will reach the top of the cycle and perhaps witness a reversal.
Although the crowd remains quite optimistic about the potential of various cryptocurrencies, it would not be surprising if the market moves in the opposite direction. Popular crypto traders on social media platforms have also expressed similar sentiments, making the timing ripe for a potential crypto bear market.
Why does a bear market start in April?
In a January 25 post on the X Platform, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared his “unpopular opinion” about the current Bitcoin bull cycle and its potential end. Experts say a bear market could begin in about three months.
The rationale behind this prediction is Bitcoin’s historical price performance during various halvings. During the Bitcoin halving, which occurs approximately every four years, mining rewards are cut in half and the supply of Bitcoin becomes tight.
Halving events have historically heralded significant price increases, as we saw with the most recent halving in 2024. However, post-halving bull markets typically involve significant profit-taking, leading to market consolidation and a bear market.
Source: Ali_charts/X
From a historical perspective, the approximately 276 days following the halving event have proven to be pivotal in the trajectory of the Bitcoin market. Specifically, Bitcoin price experienced a significant price increase after crossing the 276-day halving milestone from 2012 to 2016.
However, 367 days after the halving, or 91 days after the 276-day milestone, the BTC market witnessed a change in sentiment and a severe market downturn. If this historical pattern holds, investors could see a bear market begin in late April.
As of this writing, BTC price is just below the $105,000 level and does not reflect any significant movement over the past day.
Is your interest in retail growing?
While historical price data is an effective way to analyze cycle trajectories, on-chain data is another way to uncover cyclical price movements. One such data is individual interest in Bitcoin, which measures small-scale investor demand for the leading cryptocurrency.
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Typically, demand from retail investors often correlates with the peak euphoria stage. “Looking at past cycles, the number of searches for “how to purchase virtual currency” has spiked significantly in the past two times, when Bitcoin reached around $65,000 in May 2021 and around $60,000 in November 2021. $9,000, right at the peak of the market,” Martinez said in another X post. .
Source: Ali_charts/X
As shown in the chart above, the “interest rates over time” indicator appears to be rising again in 2025. This may indicate that the crypto market is nearing a ceiling.
Bitcoin price on daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
