Eight Republican candidates participated in the party’s first primary debate in August. But even fewer candidates may be on stage when Republicans hold their next debate later this month.
Joshua Lott/The Washington Post via Getty Images
With less than two weeks until the second Republican presidential primary debate, time is running out for Republican candidates to meet the Republican National Committee’s eligibility criteria. To participate in the September 27 debate, each candidate must receive at least 3 percent support in two eligible national polls or receive at least 3 percent support in one national poll. , they would need to get the same number in early voting polls in two different states conducted after August 1st. Each candidate must also provide evidence that their campaign has attracted at least 50,000 unique donors. And given the polls and donors, if candidates want to participate, they will have to re-sign a pledge to support the eventual 2024 party nominee.
As it stands, there is a fair chance that fewer than the eight candidates who attended the party’s first rally in August will qualify. Six of that octet appear to be polling with donors to hold a second debate, and each signed the RNC pledge for the first debate, so they will sign again. There’s no reason to think otherwise. But North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson may have a hard time qualifying again in September, when polling and donor standards are high. And former President Donald Trump, who was absent from the first debate despite easily qualifying for the RNC pledge aside from signing the RNC pledge, has indicated that he intends to avoid the second debate as well. It seems so.
At least six candidates appear scheduled to participate in the second Republican debate.
As of 4:30 p.m. ET on September 13, 2023, Republican presidential candidates depending on whether they are eligible for the second primary debate and whether they have signed the pledge for the first debate. person.
Candidate Poll Donors Sign First Debate Pledge Ron DeSantis вÑÐ’Ñ™âВЂВњ вÑÐ’Ñ™âÐ’ÐãÐ’Ñš вÑÐ’Ñ™âÐ’ÐãÐ’Ñš Vivek Ramaswami Mike Pence Mike Pence Chris Christie Chris Christie вÑÐ’Ñ™âÐ’ÐãÐ’Ñš Tim Scott Asa Hutchinson Will Hurd
This table only includes candidates who meet FiveThirtyEight’s “core” candidate criteria. Poll eligibility is based on surveys that appear to meet the Republican National Committee’s coverage requirements.
To qualify for the debate, candidates must meet both vote count and donor criteria set by the Republican National Committee. To meet the voting requirements, a candidate must reach 3 percent in at least two national polls, or reach 3 percent in one national poll and two polls in the first four states voting in the Republican primary. required, each with votes from a different state. Meets RNC inclusion criteria. To meet donor requirements, candidates must have at least 50,000 unique donors and at least 200 donors in at least 20 states and/or territories. Information released by campaigns is used to determine whether candidates have met donor thresholds. We also considered the latter requirement to be met if a campaign reached 50,000 donors but did not state whether it had at least 200 donors in 20 states. To participate, candidates with sufficient polling and donations must sign a pledge pledging to support the eventual Republican presidential nominee.
Source: public opinion polls, news reports
According to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswami had at least 3 percent support in every eligible poll (as did Trump). Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie met this standard in nearly all surveys, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott met this criterion in about three-quarters of the time. reached this standard. And none of these six candidates seemed to have any difficulty reaching the 50,000 donor goal. Even the Pence campaign, which had a harder time attracting donors than many other campaigns, announced in mid-August that it had attracted enough unique donors to qualify for the second debate.
With 11 days left until the September 25 qualifying deadline, the increase in the voting threshold from 1% to 3% appears to be the main obstacle for candidates who have not qualified. Burgum announced in late July that he had 50,000 donors, but a FiveThirtyEight analysis shows only one statewide survey, conducted by Trafalgar Group in mid-August in Iowa. It was found that the number of donors reached 3%. Now, Mr Burgum’s camp will either have the 2.5% he got in the Trafalgar poll in mid-August, or the 4% he got in the joint and streamlined poll on behalf of his party in early August. One might argue that he reached 3% in New Hampshire based on . New Hampshire Journal. Although the possibility of the RNC compiling the second Trafalgar poll cannot be ruled out, the RNC has not indicated any intention to round the poll results reported during the first debate preliminaries to the nearest whole number. However, because co/efficient has polled Trump this term, its New Hampshire poll will not be counted under the RNC’s polling rules. Excludes public opinion polls conducted by related organizations With a candidate or candidate committee.
But whether he has one or two early state polls, Burgum has struggled to hit the 3% mark in national polls. No wonder Best of America PAC, the super PAC supporting Burgum, has reserved $4 million in advertising from August 30th to September 24th. But there’s not much evidence that this boosted Burgum. Morning Consult, the most prolific national pollster, says: has released data from seven national polls since Aug. 1, and only once has Burgum been above 0%, reaching 1% in a mid-August poll. It predates super PAC ad buying. In fact, since Aug. 1, a national poll of at least 800 likely Republican voters, conducted by Kaplan Strategies immediately after the first debate, has shown Burgum’s vote share. The rate reached 2% in just one case.
Hutchinson, on the other hand, would need both more polls and more donors to take the stage, but the number of donors appears likely to reach 50,000. Last week, a campaign spokesperson told ABC News that Hutchinson was “very close” to meeting donor requirements and that there was a last-minute surge in donors to qualify for the first debate. spoke. On the polling front, Mr. Hutchinson has something that Mr. Burgum doesn’t. Thanks to a Kaplan Strategies poll conducted before the first debate, he has been polling more than 3% in national polls. However, in potentially qualifying national polls conducted since the first debate, Hutchinson has not received more than 1% of the vote. He also did not perform well in early state polls, and in order to satisfy the RNC’s other poll qualification routes, he passed qualifying polls from two different states to his one national poll. It is unlikely to be combined with
It is unlikely that other Republicans will be able to qualify for the September debate. Former Texas congressman Will Hurd appears to have one qualifying poll in New Hampshire (a mid-August Echelon Insights/Republican Main Street Partnership poll), but he is not as likely as Mr. Burgum or Mr. Hutchinson. Similarly, most surveys struggle to clear the 1 percent mark. And although Hurd may reach his goal of 50,000 donors, his public refusal to consider signing the RNC pledge may keep him from taking the stage. It is almost certain. Additionally, businessman Perry Johnson and radio host Larry Elder are close to qualifying for the first debate, with both claiming the RNC unfairly removed them from the podium. , has threatened legal action against the RNC. But even if Johnson or Elder could get 50,000 donors — Johnson claimed to have that many Mid-August — Neither candidate has qualifying votes for their name.
Finally, Trump’s presence, or lack thereof, casts a shadow over the debate process. The former president has a national average of over 50 percent in FiveThirtyEight, making him the clear front-runner to win the Republican nomination. But while Trump’s average dropped slightly after the first debate, it essentially returned to pre-debate levels, meaning voters didn’t actually blame Trump for missing the debate. It suggests that. So if he skipped the second debate, just as he did during the first debate when a pre-recorded interview between Trump and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson aired simultaneously, No wonder it looks like they’re planning to host a behind-the-scenes show that night.
With Trump likely absent, the second debate is once again set to be a clash between the party’s leading alternatives, but none of the candidates poses a significant challenge to Trump. He doesn’t seem to be in a position to make a move. Still, it’s critical for these candidates to be on the debate stage, and failure to qualify could signal to donors that their campaigns truly have no chance of success. This is because there is. Additionally, even though Trump may not be in the spotlight, the debate will give other Republican candidates the opportunity to be seen and heard by a large audience. Candidates do not want to waste this opportunity. A strong performance in the debate could change the course of the election campaign.
