Optimism is appropriate because the world, as chaotic as it is today, may be able to improve. And part of the reason is that the new American president, Donald Trump, is approaching the problem in a surprisingly unconventional way, and a way out may be possible.
Paranoia is necessary because the world is complex and today’s “polycrisis” hides dangerous feedback loops. And a leader as unpredictable as Trump could inadvertently blow it all away.
We need to get used to this ambiguity. This ambiguity reminds me of the famous cat from Erwin Schrödinger’s thought experiment (if quantum superposition means anything to you).
The poor creature is sitting in a sealed box, both alive and dead at the same time. That is, until you open the box and take a look. After that it will be either. Something similar will happen when Trump takes the oath of office and starts making all the chaos in the world his own.
Here are just a few examples from international relations that show how different cats live and die. These stem from the most important bilateral relationship in the world: the US-China relationship. When these two work together, almost any problem can be solved. Otherwise, every pickle can escalate into Armageddon.
You might not have noticed from your social media streams, but starting in 2021, the leading killer of Americans between the ages of 18 and 45 has been fentanyl, or other synthetic opioids based on it.
One reason (among several) is that China is dissatisfied with U.S. support for Taiwan and other forms of neglect, and is dissatisfied with the illegal production of necessary chemicals by the Chinese triads. He pretended to be innocent. Those molecules then made their way to Mexico, where drug cartels packaged them for sale in the United States. People will die if U.S.-China relations deteriorate.
But a little more than a year ago, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping met and agreed to back away from the brink. China is currently cracking down on the Triads (though there are still plenty of drugs in circulation). And lo and behold, fentanyl deaths began to decline in 2023 and are now on the decline (again, for complex reasons, but this is one). People can live if Washington and Beijing work together.
Apply this to the other cat in the box that Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump will soon have joint custody of. One is the possibility of nuclear war or an arms race leading to it. This year, China added another 100 nuclear warheads to its arsenal, bringing the total to about 600. The plan is to catch up with the United States and Russia within about 10 years. Each has approximately 1,700 nuclear weapons deployed for immediate use, with thousands more in storage.
Will all three continue to arm themselves in a futile effort to outsmart the others? Eventually, this could lead to a mass extinction of cats.
But there is hope if Trump and Xi agree to put a stop to this madness, as Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev once did. Together, they could persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin, even North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Iran’s Ayatollahs, to join arms control negotiations. Mr. Xi has the necessary influence over them. And Trump is–well, according to Trump–a genius at negotiation.
Mr. Xi’s influence in Moscow, Pyongyang, and Tehran also triggers a parallel threat to world peace: the formation of a new “axis” between these regimes.
These four authoritarian states are gradually transitioning from informal cooperation to undermine the United States and the “order” it is supposed to protect, to formal relations. For example, under this year’s Russia-North Korea deal, North Korean troops are currently fighting and dying. He was with Russian soldiers in President Putin’s war against Ukraine.
This de facto axis will push the Trump administration into a corner. So far, the U.S. government under Democratic and Republican administrations has viewed conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea as separate.
If there is any indication that the four adversaries might adjust their plans, or in the absence of one, opportunistically recalculate and attack when the United States appears distracted. If possible, the risk of these enemy combat areas working together increases.
The US military is currently set up to win one big war and one small war at the same time. If you have to face the whole axis, you have to pay 4 and can lose.
The appropriate label for that scenario is World War III. It’s a phrase President Trump has used often, and it clearly bothers him. Instead of offering strategies to prevent this nightmare, he has so far only touted his alleged “strength,” whatever that means.
Turning this bumper sticker into military power would require doubling or tripling America’s defense budget, creating a financial and political crisis.
Therefore, his only real option is to dismantle the axis before it becomes a reality. That again means he will have to talk to Beijing. China sees itself as the center of an emerging anti-Western alliance, even though it is wary of Moscow and North Korea embracing too closely. If Trump and Xi talk, people will live. Otherwise, people may die.
So it applies to almost all big problems. For example, the United Nations has gone from being simply dysfunctional to worthless. One reason is that three of the five permanent members of the Security Council continue to sabotage each other and the system as a whole.
The US will veto resolutions related to Israel, while China and Russia will protect each other and North Korea and other rogue actors. In contrast, the other two permanent members, the UK and France, have successfully refrained from using their veto power for more than 30 years.
If President Trump and President Xi Jinping want to restore the international system (which Trump claims he clearly despises), they could jointly declare a suspension of the veto.
The best example, of course, is climate change. I hesitate to bring it up. This is because it cannot be said to be in President Trump’s head and is hidden in a corner. But things could change, especially if he remembers that he should leave a positive legacy.
Historically, the United States has been the largest emitter of carbon emissions into the atmosphere, but since 2005 China has taken the top spot. There is hope if these two countries can work together to slow global warming. If not, it doesn’t exist.
This is where paranoia bubbles up from the amygdala. For now, President Trump has shown little interest in these broader ideas and ambitions. Instead, he seems focused on starting a trade war with China, and the whole world, because “the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariff.'”
It’s a bad economic idea and shockingly boring. This is also the worst way for Mr. Xi to start. And remember: if they don’t cooperate, the cats will start dying.
Then optimism strikes back. It is foolish of Trump to use name-calling to see how his interlocutors, friend or foe, will react just to see how they will react. But he also knows that solving real-world problems, whether in Ukraine, on the southern border, or anywhere else, requires sensitivity and an open mind – at least for me. I hope so. And neither he nor President Xi want to blow up the world.
