Syria is at a crossroads after a shocking rebel attack brought an end to the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
It will certainly be a long road to rebuilding Syria from the ashes of a devastating civil war. But cash is in short supply for Syrians seeking to provide relief to their compatriots and begin rebuilding a new Syria.
But there is one way Western countries can help Syrians access the funds they need to aim for a stable and prosperous future. It’s about ending US sanctions.
The sanctions stem from decades of efforts to isolate the Syrian regime. Those efforts began to reach a climax when President Assad launched a brutal crackdown on the revolution that erupted 13 years ago.
“Not considering sanctions relief now would be like pulling the rug out from under Syria when it is trying to get back on its feet.”
Today, with Assad gone, a growing number of humanitarian advocates, experts, and lawmakers are calling on the United States to immediately end sanctions against Syria, a necessary step to lead the recovery and deliver aid to the country’s migrants. I’m looking for it.
“Not considering sanctions relief now would be like pulling the rug out from under Syria when it’s trying to get back on its feet,” said Delaney Simon, senior analyst at International Crisis Group. “The magnitude of the impact of sanctions on the Syrian economy cannot be overstated.”
Congress had a chance to end this month by simply letting the toughest sanctions against Syria expire. The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019 is scheduled to expire on December 20th, but Congress is committed to keeping it alive.
A recent proposal for next year’s U.S. defense budget included a provision to extend Caesar sanctions. The document was released just hours before Assad’s fall. The defense budget is a huge bill that must be passed by Congress, so its provisions are unlikely to change. However, the president can waive many of the sanctions because the fall of Assad’s regime meets certain conditions in the law.
But the terrorist designation of the Syrian state and the rebels it de facto leads poses major obstacles to trade.
banned terrorist
Much of the anxiety about Syria’s future direction stems from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main group behind Assad’s ouster.
HTS, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, is listed as a terrorist organization by the US and UK governments, so doing business with the group is prohibited. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani also has a $10 million bounty on his head thanks to his role with both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
HTS and Al Jolani are currently distancing themselves from their past partnership. Politico recently reported that there is an “intense debate” in Washington over whether the U.S. should delist the group.
However, the HTS terrorist list is just one barrier to opening up Syria.
Decades of U.S. economic pressure, largely encouraged by hawkish lawmakers, have made Syria one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. Under this economic war, on top of the pressures of a brutal civil war waged by Assad’s dictatorial regime, violent rebel groups such as the Islamic State, and various other extremist groups, Syrian civilians have been plunged into untold poverty. suffering.
Analysts and lawmakers say the end of the Assad dynasty’s half-century rule could begin providing relief to Syrians and boost the economy by ending sanctions. But the path to relief runs through Washington.
“We don’t know exactly what the future holds for Syria,” Robert Ford, who served as ambassador to Syria under President Barack Obama, said Thursday. “I don’t know if it will become a state that respects the rights of minorities, which is one of the conditions for the restoration of diplomatic relations that the State Department presented yesterday.”
“But it’s still early in the game,” he continued. “I think the current stance of removing some of the sanctions, particularly those targeting the construction industry, is a very good stance.”
People line up to get bread from a charity organization in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on December 2, 2024. Photo: Muhammad Haj Kadour/AFP via Getty Images
Washington’s role
The Syrian government itself has been designated as a state sponsor of terrorism since 1979, but economic warfare intensified in 2011 when civil war broke out. A series of executive orders restricted much of the remaining trade between Syria and the United States. Then, in 2019, Congress passed the bipartisan Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which targets individuals who have done business with the Assad regime. Dramatically expanded the United States’ ability to sanction companies and governments.
At the time the law was passed, proponents argued that it was intended to reduce potential harm to Syrian civilians and, as the Brookings Institution put it, ” “This is to avoid penalizing humanitarian aid, including medical supplies and food supplies.” However, the UN special rapporteur said in a 2023 report that “increasing over-compliance” with sanctions, particularly the Caesar Act, was having “serious negative impacts on a wide range of human rights”.
As a result of US sanctions targeting entire economic sectors and all of Syria’s major banks, the currency has plummeted, inflation has soared, and the already dire local humanitarian and economic situation has worsened. Secretary of State Antony Blinken himself has said that US policy is to oppose rebuilding Syria until there is “irreversible progress toward a political solution.”
It seems that moment has arrived. And at least a few lawmakers seem ready to seize the moment.
This week, two congressmen, Rep. Joe Wilson (South Carolina) and Rep. Brendan Boyle (Pennsylvania), wrote a letter asking the Biden administration to ease some sanctions against Syria. Lawmakers called on the administration to continue sanctions against former Assad regime officials while suspending other parts of the Caesar Act, particularly those that blacklist entire economic sectors and block reconstruction.
“Lifting sanctions and export restrictions on Syria requires a deliberate and gradual approach,” the letter said.
For Wilson and Boyle, it was a turnaround. As members of the influential House Foreign Affairs Committee, lawmakers have previously supported legislation to strengthen Caesar sanctions, repeatedly arguing that the exceptions built into U.S. sanctions were sufficient.
insufficient aid
For many Syria observers, calls for widespread sanctions to be lifted will be welcome, especially given the impact the economic blockade has had on the Syrian people.
“The claim that secondary sanctions had no impact on Syrian civilians is unproven,” said Ford, the former ambassador. “If sanctions delay construction projects, the result is less housing, which means less housing for Syrians. It also means fewer jobs and lower wages. Certainly. , our efforts to block the supply of energy products, especially oil and gasoline, have certainly contributed to the rise in energy prices in Syria, which also hurt the population.
According to the United Nations World Food Program, basic food prices in Syria rose by 800 percent from 2019 to 2021. The United Nations estimates that 16.7 million people, more than 70% of Syria’s population, are in need of humanitarian assistance. Almost half of those in need are children.
“Claims that secondary sanctions had no impact on Syrian civilians have not been proven.”
Despite authorizations and cuts for humanitarian aid, restrictive economic measures make it difficult for organizations to provide aid. Simon, an expert at the Crisis Group, said Syria is subject to very strict sanctions, leading to a “discouraging effect” where most companies are reluctant to do business in Syria due to potential legal and reputational risks. He said it was effective.
But even if companies and international organizations are willing to take advantage of humanitarian exemptions, Simon says more needs to be done.
“Humanitarian aid alone cannot generate an entire economy,” Simon said. “We saw this in Afghanistan, where there was a humanitarian operation permit and humanitarian workers were on the ground. But even if donors were prepared to provide all the necessary aid, some You can’t sustain an entire country’s GDP by just transporting aid. That’s not the way to establish an independent country that can eventually stand on its own two feet.
Simon believes the United States and other sanctioning governments should develop a plan to eventually repeal the measures. But now the United States could take immediate steps to issue a general permit that would allow commercial operations as well as humanitarian aid in Syria.
