The Toronto Maple Leafs are reportedly interested in signing the soon-to-be free agent Brandon Saad.
The forward has been going through a rough season with the St. Louis Blues where his ice time and offensive production has dropped off exponentially. He was mired in trade rumours throughout the year without any takers, resulting in the Blues placing him on waivers on Tuesday where he went unclaimed.
Instead of reporting to St. Louis’ AHL affiliate the Springfield Thunderbirds, the team instead announced a few hours after he cleared on Wednesday that Saad and the Blues mutually agreed to terminate his contract and that would be placed on unconditional waivers the next day. He is expected to clear waivers at 2 p.m. on Friday after which he is free to sign with whichever team he wants.
Despite his trying season in St. Louis, Saad will have plenty of suitors vying for his services including the Leafs. Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli mentioned on NHL Coast to Coast on Thursday that the Leafs as one of the teams to keep an eye on along with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights, and New Jersey Devils.
As mentioned on @SportsOnPrimeCA tonight: Four teams to keep an eye on for pending free agent Brandon Saad, who is eligible to sign as soon as Friday.#LeafsForever, #VegasBorn, #NJDevils and #GoBolts
Saad scored 26 last year and is eager to prove he has plenty left in tank.
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) January 31, 2025
On Thursday’s edition of Insider Trading, TSN’s Chris Johnston reported that the Leafs will be among the teams expected to make a push for Saad when he becomes a free agent. While they are focusing their efforts on centres, the team is interested to see if there is a fit for the winger to shore up their depth.
TSN’s Darren Dreger reported on Early Insider Trading on Thursday that Toronto has a moderate level of interest in the winger given they have other needs they first want to address.
“Well, it’s at least moderate. I say that because I don’t want to say high or I don’t want to say limited. High speaks to the level that he’s a primary target and that might ultimately end up being what it is, depending on what Brandon Saad gets on the open market when he clears waivers on Friday. The reason I choose the word moderate is because as much as I like the history between Craig Berube and Brandon Saad and the fact that Saad could complement what the Toronto Maple Leafs have – because he can skate, he can provide secondary scoring – he hasn’t been providing much with the St. Louis Blues to this point of the year, which is why he’s gone through this process.
Again, I caution: Toronto has other needs. We watched the game that the Leafs played against the Minnesota Wild. Yes, we know John Tavares is coming back. He should be back after the weekend but they’re suspect up the middle, so Brad Treliving is looking at the centre market and perhaps some help on the blueline. So, can they afford to bring in Brandon Saad if that money invested, cap space invested maybe comes at the expense of something more needy like a centreman or a defenceman? Those are questions that are probably being asked internally in Toronto and will swirl around any sort of negotiation specific to Brandon Saad and his agent.”
It is no secret that the Leafs have been prioritizing their efforts on improving their centre depth as their options outside of Auston Matthews and John Tavares have not been good enough. Having seen minimal success from a revolving cast of options in Pontus Holmberg, Max Domi, David Kampf, and Connor Dewar among others has exposed their their lack of quality outside of their top two centres. The struggles of Morgan Rielly and the loss of a step from the defensive unit as a whole have also upped the need for help for the backend. Jake McCabe’s extended absences exposed the flaws on the backend while the likes of Conor Timmins, Philippe Myers, and Simon Benoit have proven they cannot handle minutes beyond the third pairing.
While those are the two primary areas of focus for Brad Treliving, there are also growing concerns once again about the lack of secondary scoring. After Wednesday’s game against the Wild, the Leafs have 116 of their 155 goals from only six players. Everyone not named Matthews, Tavares, William Nylander, Matthew Knies, Bobby McMann or Mitch Marner has struggled to score this season, and this is from a team that has long struggled to generate offence in the postseason.
This brings us back to Saad and why the Leafs might be interested in signing him. While his numbers this season suggest he may not be the answer to the Leafs’ scoring woes as he had just 16 points (seven goals and nine assists) in 43 games prior to getting his contract terminated, the underlying numbers show he is just going through an unlucky stretch. Saad’s shooting percentage is at 9.3% while his PDO at 5v5 is .964, which is among the lowest in the league for players with at least 500 minutes of ice time.
This is a guy who is capable of scoring at least 20 goals a season and has a career shooting percentage of 12.7%. That means he is bound to regress to the mean and have his numbers improve to around what he is capable of. Combine that with his familiarity with Berube and his availability for both special teams, and it makes sense why the Leafs are among the teams interested in Saad.
Of course, they would have to move a body off their roster to fit him into the fold but Saad would likely be willing to accept a contract for under $1 million AAV so all the Leafs would need to do is send someone down or trade a player they aren’t going to use anymore. Even though they do have other needs that they need to address, getting someone who can help mitigate their growing need for secondary scoring could help quell fears fans are starting to have about the team going into the playoffs.
With multiple reports suggesting that the Leafs have their eyes on Saad, perhaps he could be the first domino to fall for what could be a busy trade deadline period for Treliving.
