The outgoing Biden administration recently lifted a ban on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to attack targets inside Russia. The ban was imposed by the White House and complied with by Washington’s allies, concerned that Russia could escalate the conflict to nuclear weapons.
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded by signing into law changes to Russia’s nuclear principles that lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons. Russia then attacked Ukraine with an apparently new nuclear-capable intermediate-range missile, the Oleshnik. President Putin then announced that Russia has the right to attack military installations of countries that allow Ukraine to use weapons to attack Russia, namely the United States and Britain.
President Putin’s nuclear threat and use of the Oleshnik missile were reported with alarm around the world. In Britain, the press asked Putin if he was “ready to reach for the nuclear button,” raising the possibility of World War III.
British and American reports amplifying Putin’s threat were covered in detail in Russian media’s gloating coverage. “They understand us correctly,” said the host of Russia 1 television channel’s 60 Minutes program, reporting on a Guardian article suggesting that Putin was directly threatening London and Washington. I commented.
Russia’s interest in British and American media coverage highlights something important about Russia’s Western strategy since the start of the war against Ukraine in February 2022.
The Kremlin has made it increasingly clear that it views the West as the main existential threat to Russia. This is not just because Ukraine’s continued resistance on the battlefield has been made possible by Western military support, or because harsh Western sanctions have forced Russia into a position of dependence on China. Opposition to the global influence of Western countries, especially the United States, and the spread of liberal values has now become one of President Putin’s main ideological policies.
However, Russia does not have the ability or desire to engage in direct military confrontation with NATO. It is a conflict in which Russia would lose if it were conventional, but everyone, including Russia, would lose if it adopted nuclear weapons. The Kremlin is therefore resorting to other means to limit aid to Ukraine, weaken Western powers, and divide Western society. These include sabotage of critical infrastructure and interference in rival countries’ domestic politics.
climate of fear
One of the important tools is the attempt to manipulate public opinion, especially by creating an atmosphere of fear. It would be highly beneficial and inexpensive for the Kremlin to succeed in shaping the domestic environment in which Western governments take decisions regarding Ukraine and Russia.
Russia prefers to use nuclear weapons as a propaganda tool, both to a domestic audience and to the country’s rivals and enemies. EPA-EFE/Maxim Shipenkov
This is reflexive control, a type of Soviet-era military practice. Reflexive control is a technique that, through the presentation of targeted information, forces an adversary to make decisions that the Kremlin wants.
This is what is happening now. The publication of Russia’s new nuclear doctrine, President Putin’s nuclear threat, and increased alarm in the Western media are aimed at making Britain and other Western policymakers reconsider their support for Ukraine due to public concerns. There is. This has been evident since the beginning of the war. But that number rose sharply after the Biden administration accused Putin of a nuclear bluff and decided to authorize long-range missile strikes against Russia.
energy blackmail
This is not the first time since the start of the war that the Russian government has tried to put pressure on the West by scaring its people. In October 2022, the Kremlin threatened that Russia could shut down gas pipelines to Western Europe in the winter.
The aim was to pressure European governments to change their policies regarding Ukraine and sanctions. This is a tactic Russia has used successfully for decades to put pressure on its weaker post-Soviet neighbor. However, this backfired as many countries that previously purchased gas from Russia moved to other energy sources.
Of course, attempts to exploit public anxiety about the Russian threat to change Western policy will jeopardize the Kremlin’s credibility if it fails because the threat is neutralized or ignored. Despite the alarm, the EU and other Western European countries have not suffered a catastrophic energy failure, and Putin has yet to use nuclear weapons inside or outside Ukraine. The more often this happens, the weaker Russia becomes in relation to its adversaries and the rest of the world. That would put Putin in a dangerous position.
This latest round of threats and increased Western media coverage by Russia is the result of the Biden administration’s decision to finally declare President Putin’s nuclear bluff. These indicate that a more serious response, including the use of nuclear weapons, is as unlikely as before.
However, while it remains extremely unlikely that Russia will resort to nuclear weapons, any attempt by Russia to pressure the UK or other European countries through public opinion manipulation, sabotage or other means will likely lead to Trump’s election as president. There is a good chance that the number will increase after January 2025, when the number returns. If the White House is friendly to Russia, the whole world will be less secure.
