Bitcoin faces significant selling pressure above $100,000, and market leaders are struggling to regain momentum. After posting an impressive rally, BTC is now testing its ability to overcome significant resistance as traders and investors remain wary of its short-term trajectory.
Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared his insights on X, highlighting key indicators that suggest the market is entering a cooling phase. According to Adler, the block profit and loss ratio model (a metric that tracks profit and loss within each block on the BTC network) shows a gradual decline in activity as profits are realized. Investors securing maximum profits at the $90,000-$100,000 level are contributing to this change, indicating a possible slowdown after the bullish frenzy.
The current market environment reflects a mix of optimism and hesitation as BTC consolidates near psychological resistance. Overall sentiment remains cautiously bullish, but cooling market dynamics could prolong the correction.
The next few days will be crucial in determining the direction of Bitcoin as it struggles to overcome this key barrier. Whether BTC manages to push above $100,000 or settles into a longer consolidation, its performance could set the tone for the broader cryptocurrency market.
Risks facing Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s struggle to regain the $100,000 mark has put the market leader at a crossroads. Prices are showing resilience, but spending each day below this important level raises questions about the strength of the bullish structure. To confirm a continued rise, BTC will need to break and sustain above $100,000, demonstrating renewed confidence in the market.
Axel Adler recently shared important insights about X and shed light on current market dynamics. Adler’s analysis focuses on the block P&L ratio model, a key metric that tracks P&L activity within each 10-minute Bitcoin block. The data reveals that after investors fixed the maximum profit from $90,000 to $100,000, the indicator dropped significantly from the level above $100,000 to 159. This sharp decline suggests that trading activity is slowing and the market is cooling as participants reassess their positions.
Bitcoin UTXO Block P&L Calculation Ratio Model | Source: Axel Adler of X
Adler points out that the amount of time BTC spends at these levels will largely depend on demand. If buying pressure remains stagnant, the market may struggle to maintain its current valuation, increasing the risk of a deeper correction. Conversely, a surge in demand could quickly push BTC above $100,000 and reignite the bullish trend.
The next few days will be crucial in determining the direction of Bitcoin. A solid recovery of $100,000 would solidify the company’s bullish outlook, but an extended decline below this mark could test investor confidence. As traders watch these developments closely, Bitcoin’s ability to survive this pivotal stage is likely to shape the trajectory of the broader crypto market.
Struggle below major moving averages
Bitcoin is currently trading below the important 4-hour 200 moving average of $98,208 and needs to regain this level to confirm the bullish structure. This mark has become a key resistance point and price appears to be setting lower highs within the key liquidity range of $108,000 to $92,000. This indicates further downside risk could emerge if momentum does not change soon.
BTC trades below 200MA for 4 hours | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
The $98,208 level is crucial for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Failure to break above this moving average could indicate that bearish pressure is still prevailing and could push the price towards a low demand zone closer to $92,000. Such a move would cast doubt on the broader bullish view and test investor confidence.
For the bulls to regain control, BTC needs to decisively break through the $100,000 mark within the next few days. A successful move above this psychological and technical level could trigger a strong rally, attract fresh buying interest, and solidify the bullish structure.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
