Download the full issue of Parameters | Spring 2024
The spring issue is out! This edition includes “Ukraine: The Emergency” by Anthony L. Tingle and Rebecca W. Jensen and “Strategies for Sanctions” by David Katz. SRAD Director’s Corner “Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: Report from NATO’s COE-DAT”; Check out the latest issue for the latest information on the Indo-Pacific, strategic thinking, the Middle East, and even the Civil War.
From the editor-in-chief
Antulio J. Echevarria II
Welcome to the Spring 2024 issue of Parameters. Readers should note that there are some differences in the formatting of this issue. I use endnotes instead of footnotes to easily switch from PDF to HTML via Adobe’s Liquid app. Readers can also click on each endnote number to view the entire endnote and return to the text to resume reading. Please let us know what you think of the changes.
More to come! The issue begins with two In Focus commentaries. One talks about the urgency of continuing aid to Ukraine, and the other talks about how to improve the West’s use of sanctions as a coercive tool. Next, we’ll feature three forums covering two geographic regions and one forum that provides ideas to improve your strategic thinking. The issue concludes with comments from the China Land Capacity Research Center (CLSC) and an update from the Director of the Strategic Research and Analysis Department (SRAD).
keyword: Ukraine, Russia, NATO, Europe, security force assistance, sanctions, political and economic power, China, strategic land power, internal security, security force assistance, police, US foreign policy, Taiwan, Indo-Pacific, rules-based order, deterrence power, self-deterrence, chemical weapons, nuclear weapons, decision making, strategy, complexity, Andrew Marshall , problem solving, George F. Kennan, self-defense, international law, non-state actors, Israel, Hamas, Middle East, self-restraint, public opinion, domestic politics, polarization, military-civil relations, George Cornwall Lewis, Anglo-American relations, strategic thinking, denial systems, Abraham Lincoln, biological weapons, unmanned killing machines, detection, attribution, accessibility
in focus
Ukraine: state of emergency
Rebecca W. Jensen and Anthony L. Tingle
If the United States and its allies seek to deny Vladimir Putin’s objective victory in the Russo-Ukrainian war, the window of opportunity to provide sufficient resources is narrow and closing, and the opportunity to provide sufficient resources to the Ukrainian military will soon become available. must promise to provide. This article argues that the West needs a Ukraine victory now, as failure in Ukraine weakens the United States’ relationships with Western countries and global partners, while emboldening state and non-state actors to threaten the rules-based state. argues that it is necessary to clarify a rational strategy for international order.
Keywords: Ukraine, Russia, NATO, Europe, security forces assistance
Towards a strategic art of sanctions
David J. Katz
Manipulating the political economy to meet future engagement and campaign demands requires a new strategic art. Current debates about predicting political and economic power typically focus on policy at an abstract, high level, or present single tactical actions as strategic actions, making it difficult for campaign practitioners to There is a gap for. This article further develops the concepts and methodologies first introduced in the authors’ previous article, “Multidimensionality: Rethinking Power Forecasting” in Collaborative Planning, Collaborative Publication 5-0, and Collaborative Campaigns and Operations. , address the gap by leveraging joint publication 3-0. 21st century. ”
Keywords: sanctions, political and economic power, Russia, Ukraine, China
Indo-Pacific region
China’s non-traditional strategic land use in Asia
Sheena Chestnut Greitens
This article argues that the People’s Republic of China uses police and internal security forces as a non-traditional means of projecting strategic land power in the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia. Rather than restricting the analysis of China’s power projection to military power, this article employs new data on Chinese police operations abroad to fill gaps in our understanding of the operating environment in Asia. . Policymakers should understand how these activities strengthen China’s presence, partnerships, and influence across the region, and inform the development of recommendations for more effective responses. It will be.
Keywords: China, strategic land power, internal security, support for security forces, police
US-Taiwan relations and the future of the liberal order
Christina Lai
Strengthening ties with Taiwan is the United States’ best chance to maintain a free international order in Asia and improve security against China. This study provides a normative perspective on how Taiwan can contribute to U.S.-led international institutions and regional order in Asia and reduce conflict risks. Finally, it recommends that the United States and its partners integrate Taiwan into Asian multilateral institutions.
Keywords: US foreign policy, China, Taiwan, Indo-Pacific, rules-based order
Middle East region
International law, self-defense, and the conflict between Israel and Hamas
Eric A. Heinze
This article examines the international law of self-defense applicable to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and argues that an attack by Hamas against Israel in October 2023 would constitute an “armed attack” causing harm to Israel under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. ” to determine whether it can be interpreted as such. The right to use military force in self-defense against non-state actors. This paper situates this conflict within ongoing legal and political debates, and places this conflict within the changing global reality that the most dangerous security threats do not emanate solely from other countries. shows how this fits, and concludes that Israel’s use of force in the current conflict appears justified. Basis of international law.
Keywords: self-defense, international law, non-state actors, Israel, Hamas
The politics of restraint in the Middle East
Andrew Payne
Domestic constraints make it difficult for the United States to pursue a coherent program of restraint in the Middle East. As events in Gaza reignite debate about the appropriate size and scope of military presence in the region, this article highlights the importance of basing any postural adjustments on a solid domestic foundation. There is. Moving beyond explanations that decry the foreign policy establishment’s obstructionism, we explore barriers to strategic coordination through a case study of the Obama administration’s record drawn from relevant literature, data on military distribution, and interviews with senior officials. , supports that claim. officials.
Keywords: Middle East, restraint, public opinion, domestic politics, polarization, civil-military relations
About strategic thinking
Reconsidering the relevance of self-restraint
Jeffrey H. Michaels
Self-deterrence has not been critically studied in deterrence theory. Similarly, deterrence experts prefer to focus on the threat of an adversary, rather than attempting to account for the full range of fear that influences policymakers’ decision-making calculations. Through historical case studies, this article identifies where self-deterrence has arisen and highlights the benefits of incorporating this concept into future strategic planning and intelligence assessments, helping policymakers, strategists, and analysts We recommend that individuals recognize self-restraint as an important element in their preparation. future war.
Keywords: deterrence, self-deterrence, chemical weapons, nuclear weapons, decision-making
Strategy as problem solving
andrew carr
This article proposes a new definition of strategy as problem solving that challenges the focus on goals and order assumptions in many post-Cold War approaches to strategy. He argues that the military needs a strategy to diagnose the complex problems of the 21st century before they can be solved. This new definition, inspired by practitioners such as Andrew Marshall and George F. Kennan, clarifies the role of the strategist and provides a logic for differentiating the use of the term strategy. Practitioners will also find problem-solving tools and pedagogies they can adopt today.
Keywords: strategy, complexity, Andrew Marshall, problem solving, George F. Kennan
Techniques to avoid strategic miscalculations
Stephen W. Knott
This study of British Secretary of War George Cornwall Lewis and the Gold Standard Memorandum he wrote in 1862 (which helped prevent British intervention in the Civil War) will help you develop effective strategic thinking and policy. Provides insights for modern leaders on how to circumvent institutional barriers to intellectual thinking. Prevent strategic miscalculations through insightful analysis of potential liabilities and policy assumptions. This shows how great strategic thinkers have an informed, reflective filter for evaluating past, current, and anticipated events. This filter is cultivated through excellent education, diverse work experience, lifelong intellectual curiosity, empowerment, and access to senior leaders.
Keywords: George Cornwall Lewis, Anglo-American relations, strategic thinking, system of denial, Abraham Lincoln
CLSC Director’s Corner
Build a purposeful research question
Richard D. Butler
In the second installment of CLSC Director’s Corner, Joshua Arostegui, Center’s Director of Research and Director of China Studies, and Richard Butler, Center Director, discuss the Center’s research agenda. Previously, Butler outlined the center’s mission and how its research agenda answers the campaign’s big questions from the perspective of the People’s Republic of China (China), the United States, and U.S. allies and partners.
Keywords: China, land power, long war, People’s Liberation Army, Communist Party of China
SRAD Director’s Corner
Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: Report on NATO’s COE Defense Against Terrorism
Eric Hartunian &
The Institute for Strategic Studies and the NATO Counterterrorism Center of Excellence have sought the knowledge of expert researchers on emerging threats and technologies to prepare a (future) report on emerging technologies in terrorism. The information presented here includes an overview of the key factors inhibiting counterterrorism, examples of potential threat scenarios, and recommendations for how the policy and defense communities can respond to the challenges posed by emerging technologies. This is a preview.
Keywords: biological weapons, unmanned killing machines, detection, attribution, accessibility
