Download the full issue of Parameters | Fall 2024
From the acting editor-in-chief
C. Anthony Pfaff
Welcome to the Fall 2024 issue of Parameters. The fall issue includes a special article on the university’s strategic vision from the U.S. Army War College commander and president, three In Focus special commentaries, three forums (Cooperative Partnerships, Professional Development, and Historical Studies), and two regular forums (A ). Major’s Perspective and Civil-Military Relations Corner), a review essay focusing on Indian strategy.
Keywords: rebellion, cold war, people’s war, Mao Zedong, social media, al-Qaeda, Russia, Ukraine, Russian-Ukrainian war, Winston Churchill, great power competition, Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine, information operations, disinformation, information literacy, culture, human domain, intercultural competency, military education, bureaucracy, fundamentals, policy, politics, strategy, intelligence, military planning, warning, decision making, strategic planning, Dwight D. Eisenhower, World War II, strategy , Command, Collaboration, Annual Strategic Estimate, Harding Project, Professional Discourse, General Randy A. George, Civil-Military Relations, Veteran Officers, Support, Partisanship, International Relations, Neoclassical Realism, Indian Foreign Policy, Indian domestic policy, India-Pakistan relations.
Commander’s Strategic Vision
5th U.S. Military University Front Line
David C. Hill, David D. Dworak, Aaron Blair Wilcox
The United States Army War College recognizes the need to continually adapt during periods of systemic and technological change. Now at the forefront of its fifth evolution, the university provides students with an assessment-based, customizable education and delivers impactful leadership development programs, research, and war games to improve national security. Adapted to informing strategic leaders about important choices. Adapting strategic education to the needs of future operational forces is essential to maintaining the Army’s combat power in 2040 and beyond. This fifth evolution of the Army War College reinvigorates the educational requirements for the global application of land power. As a testament to the quality of its adaptive curricular process and design, the university has developed new tools to respond to the call made by Secretary Root more than a century ago to “maintain peace through war, not promote war.” We are planning a method. We need wise and appropriate preparations to repel invasions. ”
Keywords: joint force, professional military education, information age, human-machine learning, war games
in focus
Avoiding the escalation trap: Managing escalation during the Israel-Hamas war
C. Anthony Pfaff
Israel is caught in the escalation or status quo trap. Absent a political solution, a capable threat must be deployed to deter future Hamas attacks and deter Hezbollah and Tehran from providing the support needed to carry out Hamas attacks. This special commentary carries out an analysis of Israel’s precarious position and how to avoid escalation when engaging violent extremist organizations with clear but unverifiable state support. We are faced with a much bigger problem. Analysis provides a clear picture of the problem and provides interim evidence-based solutions to avoid escalation and an unsustainable status quo.
Keywords: Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel Defense Forces, violent extremist organizations
Challenges of next generation insurgency
steven metz
States and their security forces often assume that future insurgencies are a version of Mao’s “people’s wars,” and counterinsurgency efforts place them within the broader global security environment and trends in armed conflict. Without a theoretical foundation to position it as such, it will remain backward-looking. The next generation of insurgencies will be networked, swarming, and global, focused on narrative-driven conflict and total cost-sharing, and social media and virtual worlds will be their central battlespaces. No country fully understands that the “people’s war” reflects the military, economic, political, informational, technological and social conditions of the time. Through examination of the nature, character, patterns, and trends of insurgency, and through thought experiments on the next generation of insurgency, nations and their security and intelligence agencies can better understand what insurgency will look like (rather than what it has been). You can think and prepare.
Keywords: insurgency, cold war, people’s war, Mao Zedong, social media, al-Qaeda
A long, tough year: Lessons learned from the Ukraine war 2023
Michael T. Hackett and John A. Nagle
This special commentary summarizes the key findings and lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine War Comprehensive Research Project conducted by members of the U.S. Army War College Class of 2024, all of whom are subject matter experts. It covers doctrinal, operational, technical, strategic and political issues related to the second year of the war, including the use of Russian mercenaries, the need to create a culture of mission command, and how to deal with the transparent battlefields of war. It outlines seven lessons that cover key issues. Persistent and ubiquitous surveillance, air superiority, intelligence and information domain changes as prerequisites for a successful joint ground attack.
Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, Winston Churchill
collaborative partnership
Why did the Afghan and Iraqi armies collapse: An allied perspective
Colin D. Robinson
Many of the obstacles faced in rebuilding the Afghan and Iraqi forces are explained not by military factors, but by American and Western liberal thinking (ideological views) and politics. Liberal ideas largely determined which options the coalition government would adopt. Ideological factors help explain democratization and reconstruction challenges, partner leaders with different objectives, military cultural factors and the focus of Western combat, politicization, corruption, and nepotism. This article outlines the differences between Western liberal democracies and partner countries, the politics of counterinsurgency, and military accounts. This article assists U.S. professionals in security cooperation, organizational capacity building, and security assistance.
Keywords: liberal peace, Afghan National Army, Iraqi Army, security sector reform, security force support
professional development
Restoring the Priority of Cultural Skill Sets for Modern Military Professionals
Daniel W. Henk and Alison Abbe
The Department of Defense has failed to keep cultural education distinct from foreign language and regional expertise, leaving service members at a competitive disadvantage in developing skills related to other cultures. . This article builds on recent retrospective publications and interdisciplinary social science perspectives, but goes beyond them to explore social science approaches to culture, faculty-wide efforts to revive cultural education, and sociocultural studies. advocate for improved transition to practice. Policy and military professionals would benefit from understanding how cultural-general skills complement other important skills in the human domain and implementing its recommendations.
Keywords: culture, human domain, intercultural competency, military education
Operating successfully within the war zone of bureaucracy: Part 2
Jeff McManus
This article is part 2 of a two-part series. Part 1 outlines how viewing the bureaucracy as a realm of war can help policy experts navigate its processes and procedures, and then discusses externally imposed and carefully navigated processes and procedures. We’ve covered the first three fundamentals that need to be gated: politics, personality, and pressure. Part 2 covers the last seven fundamentals: Principles, Perspective, Prediction, Persuasion, Privacy, Programming, and Persistence. These are internally influenced and controlled and can be developed and deployed as a foundation for increasing success. Mapping the fundamentals of success in the bureaucratic realm enables policy professionals to address and balance the complexity of the policy-making process that benefits U.S. national security.
Keywords: bureaucracy, basics, policy, politics, strategy
historical research
Clear warning fallacy
Regan Kopple
The intelligence signals and warnings subfield has traditionally divided warnings into a dichotomy of “vague” and “clear,” giving policymakers a false sense of security. This article examines how clear warnings have been conceptualized and why they have become an inappropriate planning tool that demands too much certainty, with potentially disastrous consequences. . This article takes the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the attack on Pearl Harbor as case studies, demonstrating that clear warnings are inappropriate planning tools that can have disastrous consequences in the pursuit of certainty. is shown. The article concludes with a discussion of the role of intelligence agencies and the future of military planning.
Keywords: intelligence, military planning, warning, decision making, strategic planning
Eisenhower as Supreme Allied Commander: A Reassessment
Richard D. Hooker Jr.
This article argues that historical assessments of Dwight D. Eisenhower as Supreme Commander of Allied Expeditionary Forces in World War II lack objectivity and balance. The report identified several strategic errors and blunders attributed to Eisenhower that resulted in significant casualties and prolonged the war in Europe. These conclusions may help U.S. military practitioners and policymakers assess the background and qualifications necessary for successful wartime theater command, as well as the performance of senior commanders.
Keywords: Dwight D. Eisenhower, World War II, strategy, command, integration
Major’s perspective
Resources designed to foster professional discussion
brennan devereaux
The Army provides military personnel with Army regulations, doctrine, and organizational publications to help them accomplish critical missions, from training and unit leadership to conducting military operations. Professional discourse is no exception. The U.S. Army War College and Army War College Press recently published a resource to help the military prioritize professional discussions. These documents are a starting point for aspiring researchers and a reference guide for individuals and organizations. Together, these new publications will help the military take up Army Chief of Staff Randy A. George’s mission to revitalize the Army’s professional discourse.
Keywords: Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment, Harding Project, Professional Discourse, Department of Defense, Professional Military Education
Military-civil relations corner
The military and elections: Thoughts on support from retired flag officers
Carrie A. Lee
This article addresses the prevalence of support for retired generals and flag officers during political elections. This column examines the impact of these endorsements on public opinion, the need for further research, and the potential impact of partisan endorsement on the next generation of military leaders.
Keywords: political support, retired military officers, nonpartisanship, norm-based approach, civil-military trust
review essay
Searching for a strategy in India
Vinay Kaula
This review essay analyzes Rajesh Basroor’s ‘Subcontinental Drift: Domestic Politics and India’s Foreign Policy’ and Feroz Hassan Khan’s ‘Subcontinental Drift: South Asia’s Strategic Future’, with particular emphasis on domestic issues and Explore India’s strategy regarding Pakistan-India relations. The review concludes by pointing out that both authors agree on the disproportionate role of Pakistan’s military in Indian national politics, with most security and foreign policy decisions directed toward Pakistan.
Keywords: International relations, neoclassical realism, Indian foreign policy, Indian domestic policy, India-Pakistan relations
