The New England Patriots have overtaken the New York Giants in The Athletic’s projection for the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, potentially giving New England the franchise’s first No. 1 pick since 1993.
The Giants’ shocking win in Week 17 against the Indianapolis Colts provided the second major shake-up to the top-pick order in as many weeks, with the first new No. 1 since this series began.
The New York Giants led the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft since The Athletic began tracking the projections in Week 14. A 10-game losing streak placed the Giants in prime position to have their pick of a quarterback in April’s draft.
Last week’s Raiders win made New York the lone two-win team in the league. One week later, and the Giants have slipped down the draft rankings to their lowest point in weeks.
The field has narrowed even further with Week 18 just a week away.
Four teams will enter Week 18 with a 3-13 record. New England rises to the top by virtue of the league’s tiebreaker system — strength of schedule. Order within ties is decided by the combined records of a team’s 17 opponents throughout the year. New England is the only three-win team with a current strength of schedule below .500 (.465), according to Tankathon. If all four teams were to somehow win next week, New England’s strength of schedule is currently lower than all other four-win teams (beating out next-worst Jacksonville by 0.3 percent).
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Race to No. 1: Patriots in control of 2025 NFL Draft No. 1 pick after Giants’ Week 17 win
