NFL Nation, ESPNDec 27, 2024, 06:50 AM ET
Week 17 started off with two road teams, the Chiefs and Ravens, grabbing wins over the Steelers and Texans, respectively, on Christmas Day. The action continues with a weekend stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 17 slate, including a Ja’Marr Chase vs. Pat Surtain II matchup and a big NFC North showdown between the Packers and Vikings. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Lions and the 49ers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
LAC-NE | DEN-CIN | ARI-LAR
DAL-PHI | NYJ-BUF | LV-NO
IND-NYG | CAR-TB | TEN-JAX
MIA-CLE | GB-MIN | ATL-WSH
Thursday: SEA 6, CHI 3
Wednesday: KC 29, PIT 10; BAL 31, HOU 2
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET | NFL Network | ESPN BET: LAC -4.5 (42.5 O/U)
Chargers storyline to watch: The Patriots’ defense could make it difficult for the Chargers to punch their ticket to the playoffs. Quarterback Justin Herbert ranks 29th of 33 qualifying QBs in QBR (46.8) against man coverage this season. The Patriots’ defense uses man coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (51.8%). If Herbert does find success against New England and throws for 153 or more passing yards, he’ll pass Peyton Manning for the most such yards in a quarterback’s first five seasons in NFL history (20,618). — Kris Rhim
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Patriots storyline to watch: Coach Jerod Mayo says the Patriots have had conversations about the role of playoff spoiler against the Chargers. “It just goes back to whoever’s playing the best that day. What you did last week, or the week before, really doesn’t matter, and that’s the beauty about this game,” he said. One potential concern for New England is at center, where starter Ben Brown is in concussion protocol. That could open the door for Cole Strange to make his first start at the position after opening his career at left guard. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: With a loss, the Patriots will clinch a sub-.300 win percentage in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. will record an interception. The three Patriots players with the highest target rates are slot receiver DeMario Douglas, tight end Hunter Henry and tight end Austin Hooper. Quarterback Drake Maye will need to send some balls in James’ direction. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chargers can punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win over the Patriots. They can also make the postseason if the Colts and Dolphins both lose to the Giants and Browns, respectively. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Chargers | Patriots
Fantasy X factor: Henry. He has averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game since Drake Maye took over as the starting quarterback. In fact, Henry has seen at least eight targets in four of his past five games. Against his former team this week, expect him to be highly motivated and a key player in New England’s offense. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots are 8-15 against the spread (ATS) after a loss since the start of last season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 30, Patriots 17
Moody’s pick: Chargers 21, Patriots 14
Walder’s pick: Chargers 27, Patriots 16
FPI prediction: LAC, 60.7% (by an average of 3.9 points)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NFL Network | ESPN BET: CIN -3.5 (49.5 O/U)
Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos certainly hope cornerback Riley Moss can be back in the lineup for this one — he was a full participant in practice this week. In the three games since Moss sprained an MCL on Nov. 24 against the Raiders, Denver surrendered 30 points or more in two games and gave up two of their three highest yardage totals of the season. Moss has been the best option for the Broncos’ in the high-traffic position that is opposite of Pat Surtain II. Against a Bengals team that has thrown the ball 226 more times than it has run it, the Broncos will need every option in pass defense to clinch a playoff spot. — Jeff Legwold
Bengals storyline to watch: Ja’Marr Chase versus Pat Surtain II. It doesn’t get better than this. Chase is vying to become the fifth player since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to win the receiving triple crown, when a player leads the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Surtain leads all cornerbacks in expected points added when targeted as the nearest defender (negative-25.8), per NFL Next Gen Stats. It will be a battle of the best against the best. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: The Bengals are 0-7 against teams with winning records this season, which is tied with the Jaguars and Patriots for the most losses without a win. Strangely, the Bengals have averaged 30.3 points per game in those losses. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Surtain will allow fewer than 50 receiving yards to Chase. It takes a star to stop Chase, but that’s exactly what Surtain is. He has allowed 0.5 yards per coverage snap this season, which is the best among outside corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos can clinch a playoff spot with a win, which would be their first since winning Super Bowl 50 in 2015. On the other end, the Bengals can keep their slim postseason chances alive (currently at 7%, per ESPN Analytics) with a victory. Cincinnati would be eliminated with a loss. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Broncos | Bengals
Fantasy X factor: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. He’s currently the QB10 in ESPN leagues and draws a favorable matchup against a Bengals defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With his top target, Courtland Sutton, Nix is in a prime spot to deliver in one of the highest fantasy totals of the week. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals have covered three straight games, while four straight Broncos games have gone over the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 28, Broncos 26
Moody’s pick: Bengals 31, Broncos 23
Walder’s pick: Bengals 24, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: CIN, 57.2% (by an average of 2.8 points)
play
6:11
Breaking down the Chiefs and Bengals AFC playoff pictures
Shannon Sharpe, Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky discuss the Chiefs’ quest for the 1-seed, as well as the Bengals’ chances at the playoffs.
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | NFL Network | ESPN BET: LAR -6.5 (47.5 O/U)
Cardinals storyline to watch: Even though the Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention Sunday, quarterback Kyler Murray still has something to prove this season. He has struggled since Arizona’s bye in Week 11 with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4-to-6 in the past five games, in which the Cardinals have gone 1-4. Before the bye, however, Murray threw 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. He still has two games left to stop his skid and, at the least, even out his ratio. — Josh Weinfuss
Rams storyline to watch: Quarterback Matthew Stafford did not have a passing touchdown in Week 2 against the Cardinals. That was one of five games this season in which he has not thrown a touchdown, the most in a single season in his career, according to ESPN Research. He has thrown just one touchdown pass in the past two weeks despite the Rams being on a four-game win streak. Since losing to Arizona, Los Angeles has not lost a divisional game. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Tight end Trey McBride has 92 receptions and zero receiving touchdowns. If this continues, it will be the most receptions without a touchdown in a season (previous record was 86 by Diontae Johnson in 2022). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua will record at least 139 receiving yards to cross the 1,000-yard barrier. His efficiency numbers are outrageous. He has been targeted on 39% of his targets and is averaging 3.6 yards per route, both highest among wide receivers with at least 200 routes run. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Rams are looking to become the first team to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons after finding themselves three games under .500. They need to win Saturday and clinch strength of victory over Seattle to secure a postseason berth. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Cardinals | Rams
Fantasy X factor: Rams running back Kyren Williams. Great things happen when the Rams give Williams the ball. He had 24 or more touches in three of his past four games and scored 18 or more fantasy points in each of those. Plus, the Cardinals’ defense gives up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cardinals have covered four straight games as underdogs (6-2 ATS this season, 4-1 ATS as road underdogs). Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 27, Rams 25
Moody’s pick: Rams 27, Cardinals 16
Walder’s pick: Rams 34, Cardinals 21
FPI prediction: LAR, 55.2% (by an average of 2.0 points)
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -7.5 (40.5 O/U)
Cowboys storyline to watch: Quarterback Cooper Rush will be making the 14th start of his career and his third against the Eagles. The first two did not go well. In his first start replacing Dak Prescott this season, Rush threw for 45 yards on 13-of-23 passing in a 34-6 loss to Philadelphia. In 2022, he was intercepted three times in a 26-17 loss at Lincoln Financial Field, which was his first defeat as a starting quarterback. In his past two starts, he has gotten the ball out quickly and not been intercepted. If the Cowboys want to finish hot despite being eliminated from playoff contention, Rush has to stay away from mistakes. — Todd Archer
Eagles storyline to watch: The Eagles are dealing with uncertainty at quarterback. Jalen Hurts has yet to practice this week and remains in concussion protocol. Kenny Pickett injured his ribs while filling in for Hurts against the Commanders, but he has been able to practice and said Thursday he is “ready to go” against Dallas. He said he will wear extra padding to protect those ribs. If Hurts can’t play, 2023 sixth-round pick Tanner McKee would assume the role of No. 2 quarterback behind Pickett. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons is a half-sack away from being the fourth player to reach double-digit sacks in each of his first four seasons since individual sacks were first tracked in 1982. The others are all Hall of Famers in Dwight Freeney, Derrick Thomas and Reggie White. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Eagles linebacker Nakobe Dean will lead the league in tackles in Week 17. Dean is coming off four consecutive games of double-digit tackles and ranks fourth among linebackers in run stop win rate. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Eagles can clinch the NFC East division with a win or a Commanders loss to the Falcons on Sunday. This would mark the 20th straight season the division has not had a repeat champion, which is the longest streak in NFL history. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Cowboys | Eagles
play
1:10
Stephen A.: Jalen Hurts’ injury a bigger deal than Jayden Daniels’ big game
Stephen A. Smith explains why Jalen Hurts’ injury was a bigger headline than Jayden Daniels’ stellar game in the Commanders’ win over the Eagles.
Fantasy X factor: Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is 268 yards away from breaking the league’s single-season rushing record. With the Cowboys’ defense ranking 28th in run stop win rate (27.8%), he has a chance to make history before the end of the regular season. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their past five games. They are 5-12 ATS in their past 17 games as underdogs. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 33, Cowboys 24
Moody’s pick: Eagles 34, Cowboys 21
Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20
FPI prediction: PHI, 76.8% (by an average of 10.9 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -8.5 (46.5 O/U)
Jets storyline to watch: There’s nothing on the line for the Jets, except some individual milestones: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers needs one touchdown pass to become the fifth player in NFL history to reach 500. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson needs 13 receiving yards to hit 1,000 for the third straight season, something no Jets receiver has done since 1966-1968 (George Sauer). Davante Adams needs 72 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the fourth straight season and the sixth time in the past seven seasons. — Rich Cimini
Bills storyline to watch: While Josh Allen had success against the Jets earlier this season, it is a team that has given him trouble in the past. He has thrown 14 touchdowns to 11 interceptions in 12 games, but he has beaten them in eight of those meetings. A win over the Jets would boost Allen’s résumé for his first MVP award after Lamar Jackson’s strong outing against the Texans on Christmas. — Alaina Getzenberg
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Stat to know: The Bills are 23-5 in division games since 2020, which is the second-best record in that span (Kansas City is 24-5). The Jets are 5-23 in division games since 2020, which is the worst record in that span. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams will record at least three pressures. He ranks second in pass rush win rate among defensive tackles over the past three weeks, but Allen is awfully hard to sack. Hence, the pressures — even if they don’t result in sacks. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Bills are no longer in the running for the No. 1 seed in the AFC after the Chiefs’ win over the Steelers on Christmas. But Buffalo can lock up No. 2 with a win over the Jets on Sunday. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Jets | Bills
Fantasy X factor: Adams. He has been on fire lately, recording 11 or more targets and 17 or more fantasy points in four straight games. Now, Rodgers and Adams can test their chemistry against the Bills’ defense, which is in the top 10 for most receiving yards and touchdowns to receivers since Week 12. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 7-0 outright at home. Six of those seven games have gone over the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Bills 33, Jets 20
Moody’s pick: Bills 34, Jets 23
Walder’s pick: Bills 30, Jets 12
FPI prediction: BUF, 71.6% (by an average of 8.5 points)
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: LV -1 (37.5 O/U)
Raiders storyline to watch: Derek Carr spent nine seasons as the Raiders’ starting quarterback but never had a target quite like Las Vegas rookie tight end Brock Bowers, who needs just 10 receiving yards to eclipse Mike Ditka’s 1961 single-season receiving yardage record (1,076 yards) for a rookie tight end. Bowers already owns the single-season rookie tight end catch record with 101 receptions and, with four catches in New Orleans, would surpass Rams receiver Puka Nacua’s single-season rookie receptions mark. — Paul Gutierrez
Saints storyline to watch: Saints interim coach Darren Rizzi continues to say that running back Alvin Kamara (groin) and Carr are week-to-week with their respective injuries. Carr, who has a fractured nonthrowing hand, has not practiced in several weeks but would be facing his old team if he played Sunday. The Saints, who were shut out last week, are looking to avoid being held under 10 points in back-to-back games for the second time since 2000. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: Spencer Rattler has three straight starts with fewer than 175 passing yards. Another such game would make him the first Saints quarterback to reach that mark in four straight games since Steve Walsh in 1990. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Saints running back Kendre Miller will rush for 90-plus yards. The Saints run outside zone 61% of the time, second most in the NFL. And while the Raiders rank 14th in EPA allowed per designed carry overall, they rank 23rd when facing outside zone. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Raiders have a 1.3% chance to receive the No. 1 pick in 2025 NFL draft, per ESPN Analytics, after holding 14% odds prior to their Week 16 win. A loss would improve their chances to 3%, while a win would give them less then a 0.1% chance. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Raiders | Saints
Fantasy X factor: Raiders running back Alexander Mattison. Mattison and Ameer Abdullah had a similar number of touches in Week 16 with Sincere McCormick (ankle) on IR. Now, they’re up against a Saints defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Both are on the flex radar in deeper formats. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 10-5 when Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell starts, including 4-0 in his past four games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Saints 20, Raiders 14
Moody’s pick: Raiders 19, Saints 18
Walder’s pick: Saints 19, Raiders 16
FPI prediction: LV, 57.2% (by an average of 3.0 points)
play
1:01
Why Brock Bowers is already a fantasy star in his rookie season
Eric Moody details the historic numbers Raiders TE Brock Bowers is putting up in his rookie season.
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: IND -7.5 (40.5 O/U)
Colts storyline to watch: Quarterback Anthony Richardson is coming off a career-high 70 rushing yards in last week’s win over the Titans, a continuation of the team’s recent increased commitment in his running ability. Richardson’s rushing frequency has picked up since he returned to the starting lineup in Week 11, going from averaging 6.83 rushes per game before his benching to 9.0 since returning. Importantly, Richardson’s runs of late are not scrambles but typically designed runs; he has had four games with seven or more such runs in his past five starts. — Stephen Holder
Giants storyline to watch: The Giants will try to end a franchise-record 10-game skid with Drew Lock in again at quarterback. Coach Brian Daboll thinks the continuity with Lock could help as they are also trying to avoid becoming the first team in NFL history to finish a season 0-9 at home. Rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers said he wants to reward the fans who’ve come out to support them this season with a victory. This is their last chance. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: The Colts set a franchise record with 335 rushing yards against the Titans last week, which is also the most by any team in a single game this season. The Giants have the second-worst rushing defense, allowing 142.6 yards per game on the ground. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Giants tight end Daniel Bellinger will catch a touchdown. The Colts allow targets to tight ends on 22% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Colts could be eliminated from playoff contention before they even play this Sunday if the Chargers and Broncos both win their Saturday contests. If that doesn’t happen, Indianapolis would still be eliminated with a loss. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Colts | Giants
Fantasy X factor: Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. He had 11 touches and 16.9 fantasy points in Week 16, continuing to show value despite the ups and downs of the Giants’ offense. His receiving ability keeps him relevant in fantasy. Also, the Colts defense has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Colts are 6-1 outright and ATS against teams with losing records this season. They have not closed as at least touchdown favorites since Week 1 of 2022. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Colts 21, Giants 17
Moody’s pick: Colts 28, Giants 19
Walder’s pick: Colts 23, Giants 17
FPI prediction: IND, 68.3% (by an average of 7.3 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TB -8 (48.5 O/U)
Panthers storyline to watch: The Bucs had a season-high 236 rushing yards against the Panthers in a Week 13 win, but they still needed a fumble by Chuba Hubbard in overtime to win it. Quarterback Bryce Young completed 26 of 46 pass attempts for 298 yards in that matchup. He enters this contest off a three-touchdown performance (two passing, one rushing) that made him one of the highest-rated quarterbacks in Week 16. — David Newton
Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Bucs no longer control their own destiny in the NFC South after losing to the Cowboys last week. Revisiting fundamentals has been a huge point of emphasis. The Bucs’ 12 lost turnovers since Week 12 are third most in the NFL, and a lost fumble by Rachaad White on the final drive against Dallas doomed them, whereas a forced fumble by Anthony Nelson that was recovered by Yaya Diaby in Week 13 set up an overtime win at Carolina. — Jenna Laine
play
0:55
Field Yates: Chuba Hubbard has been an unbelievable story
Field Yates discusses the impressive play of the Panthers and Chuba Hubbard.
Stat to know: Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield leads the NFC with 34 passing touchdowns. He is looking to join Tom Brady (40 in 2020 and 43 in 2021) as the only quarterbacks in franchise history with 35-plus passing touchdowns in a single season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Bucs wide receiver Jalen McMillan will record a season high in receiving yards (76 or more). He has 50-plus yards in each of his past three games. And at least part of the time against the Panthers he’ll face Michael Jackson, who is allowing 1.6 yards per route run — more than average for an outside corner, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: Tampa Bay will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and a Falcons win against the Commanders. If that doesn’t happen, there are multiple scenarios in which Tampa Bay can clinch a postseason spot in Week 18, dependent on results from Atlanta and Washington. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Panthers | Buccaneers
Fantasy X factor: Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen. He has been outstanding recently, posting seven or more targets and 15-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games. His chemistry with Young is undeniable, and this duo should exploit a Buccaneers secondary that has allowed big games to wide receivers. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their past six games as underdogs. They are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games overall. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 24
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 23
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 27
FPI prediction: TB, 80.1% (by an average of 12.8 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TEN -1 (39.5 O/U)
Titans storyline to watch: The Titans scored touchdowns on all seven of their red zone visits over the past two weeks. Offensive coordinator Nick Holz said the improvement came mostly from a more effective run game inside the 20-yard line and fewer penalties. Tennessee’s streak of consecutive touchdowns inside the red zone started after going 0-for-2 against the Jaguars in Week 14. — Turron Davenport
Jaguars storyline to watch: Rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has already set franchise rookie records in yards (1,088), catches (73) and receiving touchdowns (nine). His next touchdown catch will make him one of only five players in franchise history with double-digit touchdown catches in a season. The only player with more than 10 touchdown catches in a season is Allen Robinson, who had 14 in 2015. — Michael DiRocco
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Stat to know: The Jaguars have a takeaway in five straight games, which is tied for the longest such streak in franchise history. But their eight total takeaways this season are the fewest in the NFL. No other team is below 10. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons will record multiple tackles for loss. He has recorded 11 on the season and currently ranks ninth in run stop win rate among defensive linemen. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Jaguars and Titans both have slim chances at the No. 1 pick, with odds of 10.1% and 5.2%, respectively, per ESPN Analytics. But they are guaranteed a spot in the top 10, and Jacksonville has an 85% chance of picking in the top five. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Titans | Jaguars
Fantasy X factor: Titans running back Tyjae Spears. In Week 16, he finished with more touches and snaps than Tony Pollard, who is dealing with an ankle injury. Spears’ role in the Titans’ backfield is growing, and he has a favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense that allows the second-most fantasy points to running backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games. Over the past seven seasons, they are 7-15 ATS as home favorites. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Jaguars 20, Titans 12
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 17, Titans 14
Walder’s pick: Titans 22, Jaguars 19
FPI prediction: TEN, 59.4% (by an average of 3.7 points)
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -6.5 (39.5 O/U)
Dolphins storyline to watch: The Dolphins’ run game was resurgent in Week 16, rushing for 166 yards — their first time cracking 100 yards since Week 9. Perhaps uncoincidentally, last week’s game marked the return of offensive guard Isaiah Wynn, who played 34 offensive snaps against the 49ers. Wynn is expected to continue to either mix in or dominate snaps at right guard against a Browns defense that has allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all but two games this season. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Browns storyline to watch: In quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s first two seasons with coach Mike McDaniel, he posted the second-highest raw QBR (88.4) when facing Cover 1. But that has changed in 2024; Tagovailoa has posted the third-lowest QBR (26.1) against the coverage. That could play into the hands of a Browns defense that uses the highest rate of Cover 1 in the NFL. — Daniel Oyefusi
Stat to know: Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy had just three targets last week against the Bengals, which is tied for a season low. His 72 receptions and 1,072 receiving yards on the season are already career highs. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Dolphins edge rusher Chop Robinson will record at least one sack and become the sole sack leader among rookies (he is currently tied with Braden Fiske at 6.0). Robinson currently ranks eighth among all players in pass rush win rate (20.6%). — Walder
What’s at stake: The Dolphins now have a 7.6% chance to the make the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics. They would be eliminated from postseason contention with a loss or wins by the Chargers and Broncos on Saturday. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Dolphins | Browns
Fantasy X factor: Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith. He has been on a roll, with at least 11 targets in three of his past six games and 20 or more fantasy points in four of those. While the Browns’ defense is average when it comes to defending tight ends, it’s hard to ignore his positive momentum. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 4-11 ATS this season, 1-6 ATS in their past seven games and 0-4 ATS in their past four games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Dolphins 28, Browns 24
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 30, Browns 20
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 20, Browns 14
FPI prediction: MIA, 54.1% (by an average of 1.7 points)
play
0:52
Why Cockcroft likes streaming Colts and Dolphins defenses in Week 17
Tristan Cockcroft explains why he likes the Colts and Dolphins defenses going up against the struggling offenses of the Giants and Browns.
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: GB -1 (48.5 O/U)
Packers storyline to watch: Quarterback Jordan Love struggled against the blitz in the first seven games of the season, which included the Packers’ Week 4 loss to the Vikings, posting the third-worst QBR when blitzed during that span. In the six games since, he has a QBR of 97 against the blitz, which leads the NFL in that category. The Vikings have the highest blitz rate in the NFL at 38%. — Rob Demovsky
Vikings storyline to watch: Sam Darnold is looking to become the first quarterback in NFL history to win 14 games in his first season with a new team. If that happens, and the Vikings sweep the Packers for only the fourth time in the past 25 seasons, they’ll keep themselves on track for a huge Week 18 game at Detroit that could determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. After struggling through a spate of midseason turnovers, Darnold has thrown 15 touchdown passes with one interception over his past six games. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: The Packers are 1-3 in NFC North games this season. A loss would clinch their fourth season under .500 in divisional matchups since 2002 and their first since 2018. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Vikings edge Jonathan Greenard will record at least 1.5 sacks. Over the past three weeks, Greenard’s 29% pass rush win rate at edge leads the league. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams are in the playoffs, but the Vikings can improve their chances at the NFC North title Sunday. Their odds increase to 36% with a win and fall to 14% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. Minnesota can win the North by either winning out or the Lions losing out. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Packers | Vikings
Fantasy X factor: Vikings running back Aaron Jones. He has had a solid first season with Minnesota, averaging 18.3 touches and 14.5 fantasy points per game. Now, he has another chance against his former team at home after scoring 17.9 fantasy points at Green Bay in Week 4. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers have covered four straight games, while the Vikings have covered three straight. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Packers 30, Vikings 27
Moody’s pick: Vikings 23, Packers 20
Walder’s pick: Packers 20, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: GB, 54.8% (by an average of 2.3 points)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: WSH -4.5 (48.5 O/U)
Falcons storyline to watch: Running back Bijan Robinson’s impressive season has gone somewhat under the radar, and Atlanta will need a big game from him against the Commanders. Robinson has the third-most yards in the league running outside the tackles (885 yards with nine touchdowns), while Washington has allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.7) on such runs. — Marc Raimondi
Commanders storyline to watch: If Washington wants to win and secure its spot in the playoffs, it will want to get its running backs going. The Commanders have averaged 2.64 yards per carry the past two weeks and will face an Atlanta defense that ranks ninth in yards per carry allowed (4.3). — John Keim
Stat to know: Michael Penix Jr. is seeking to become the first quarterback in Falcons history to win his first two career starts. He won against the Giants without a passing or rushing touchdown, and a quarterback hasn’t done that in his first two career starts since the Dolphins’ Damon Huard in 1999. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Falcons wide receiver Drake London will record his second game with 100-plus receiving yards of the season. London enters Week 17 with an 80 open score, which is tied for ninth among all eligible receivers. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams’ chances at the postseason could be affected by the Buccaneers this weekend. The Falcons can clinch the NFC South title and their first playoff berth since 2017 with a win and a Tampa Bay loss to Carolina. The Commanders can secure their first playoff appearance since 2020 with a win or a Bucs loss. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Falcons | Commanders
Fantasy X factor: Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin. The Falcons’ defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and it has really struggled against perimeter receivers. McLaurin has been on fire lately, scoring 17 or more fantasy points in four straight games. Given the matchup, he has a real shot at being the top fantasy receiver this week. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Four straight Commanders home games have gone over the total. Six of the past seven Falcons games have gone under the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 30, Falcons 28
Moody’s pick: Commanders 27, Falcons 23
Walder’s pick: Commanders 27, Falcons 23
FPI prediction: WSH, 60.5% (by an average of 3.9 points)
play
2:08
Adam Schefter breaks down Kirk Cousins’ Falcons future
Adam Schefter lays out the decision ahead for the Falcons after benching Kirk Cousins.
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: DET -3.5 (50.5 O/U)
Lions storyline to watch: In a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is looking for revenge after Detroit blew a 17-point halftime lead and missed its first Super Bowl appearance. He described it as being “like a horror movie” and one of the worst losses of his entire life. “I feel like each player that was here last year knows the feeling that we had last year and we want to go in there and hopefully come out with a W,” St. Brown said. — Eric Woodyard
49ers storyline to watch: Much has changed for the 49ers since these teams last met. The Lions have continued to ascend, while the Niners have taken a significant step back. Since 2000, this will be the ninth time the teams that met in a conference championship game will play again the following season. The home team won seven of the eight previous times. But with Detroit still fighting for the top seed and carrying a perfect road record, the 49ers will need a big turnaround to pull this off. One place they could start? Generating turnovers. They have just one takeaway in their past five games (tied for second fewest in that span). — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The Lions are 7-0 on the road, which is their longest road win streak in franchise history. They’ve lost 14 consecutive road games to the 49ers, including the playoffs. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings will record at least six receptions. Thirty percent of Lions’ opponent dropbacks result in a target to a slot receiver, which is the second-highest rate in the league, per NFL Next Gen Stats. No one has played more snaps from the slot for San Francisco this season than Jennings. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Lions can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage for the playoffs with a win and a Vikings loss to the Packers on Sunday. Read more. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Lions | 49ers
Fantasy X factor: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. He bounced back in Week 16 with 21.1 fantasy points, which helped erase the sting of his rough 3.9-point outing against the Rams in Week 15. He’s in a great spot this week, facing a Lions defense that has given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 9-2 outright and 8-3 ATS in prime-time games under coach Dan Campbell. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Lions 40, 49ers 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 31, 49ers 24
Walder’s pick: Lions 31, 49ers 20
FPI prediction: DET, 61.8% (by an average of 4.5 points)
