After 15 months of war and suffering, Israelis and Palestinians holding out for a ceasefire and hostage deal appear to be getting a pause, but not yet peace.
A fragile, phased deal that is due to begin Sunday provides for a six-week ceasefire and the release of some Israeli hostages held by Hamas in exchange for scores of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
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Word that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal was greeted with relief and some celebrations. But Israelis and Palestinians have been disappointed before; joy over the fragile deal was muted.
But even as a sense of relief swept through Israel and Gaza, it was accompanied by wariness over the possibility that the war might restart and the hostages might not return.
Observers say at its core, the initial deal, which awaits Israeli ratification, fails to address a fundamental issue that will overshadow talks on subsequent phases: Israel’s unfulfilled war aim of defeating and uprooting Hamas.
In Israel, Herut Nimrodi, whose soldier son Tamir would not be included in the first group of released hostages, says she is weighed down with concerns for her son. “We are very afraid that this first phase is where it will all stop,” she says.
“Once I heard the news and announcement of a ceasefire, I didn’t comment,” says Suad Ghoula, a displaced Palestinian nurse in Gaza. “I am afraid of having new hope, only to be disappointed again.”
After 15 months of war and suffering, Israelis and Palestinians holding out for a ceasefire and hostage deal appear to be getting a pause, but not yet peace.
A deal that was announced with great fanfare late Wednesday, and set to be implemented starting Sunday, provides for a six-week ceasefire and the release of some Israeli hostages held by Hamas in exchange for scores of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
The agreement calls for fresh negotiations for second and third phases that would follow the initial ceasefire and lead to an end of hostilities.
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Word that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal was greeted with relief and some celebrations. But Israelis and Palestinians have been disappointed before; joy over the fragile deal was muted.
But even as a sense of relief swept through Israel and Gaza, it was accompanied by trepidation and wariness over the possibility that the war might resume and the hostages might not return.
The deal’s fragility was tested almost immediately. In the 16 hours after the Wednesday announcements by Qatar and the United States that a deal had been reached, Israeli airstrikes killed 81 people in Gaza, according to local authorities.
On Thursday morning, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed an Israeli Cabinet vote to ratify the deal, accusing Hamas of backtracking on some of its commitments “in an effort to extort last-minute concessions.” Hamas issued a statement reasserting its commitment.
Observers say at its core, the initial deal fails to address a fundamental issue that will overshadow talks on subsequent phases: Israel’s unfulfilled war aim of defeating and uprooting Hamas, which continues to rule in Gaza. In Israel, the agreement is viewed primarily as a hostage release deal. Hamas sees it as providing for a permanent ceasefire.
Beginning of the end?
If the deal’s announcement did not mark the end of the war, it did signal a potential beginning of the end. The war has claimed more than 46,000 lives in Gaza after 1,200 people were killed in Israel and 250 taken hostage on Oct. 7, 2023. Hundreds of Israeli soldiers have been killed in the fighting.
In the deal’s initial phase, a 42-day ceasefire, Hamas would gradually release 33 hostages – women, children, men over age 50, and those who are ill – in return for the release of some 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. Israel would withdraw from population centers in Gaza. At the same time, a “surge” in humanitarian aid of 600 trucks a day would enter the coastal strip.
Israelis and Palestinians both expressed the hope that once hostages are returned and Gazans displaced by the war begin to return to their homes, the agreement will become difficult to reverse.
But both for the Israeli families of hostages and for Palestinians in Gaza, the multiphase deal brings painful memories of a November 2023 agreement that barely lasted eight days before it collapsed.
In Israel, Herut Nimrodi, whose soldier son Tamir would not be included in the first group of released hostages, says that while joyful over the return of some hostages, she was weighed down with fear for her son.
“We are very worried because we know Hamas, and we know that we might not get to the next stage,” says Ms. Nimrodi.
“We are very afraid that this first phase is where it will all stop, and we won’t have our children back home,” she says. “They stopped it last time.”
Hamas has refused to disclose which remaining hostages are alive or dead.
In Gaza, many Palestinians, facing intensified Israeli airstrikes leading up to the agreement’s implementation Sunday, anxiously looked forward to returning to their damaged homes after months of living in temporary shelters.
In Deir al-Balah, Lina Ata, a displaced aid worker, wants to return home to Gaza City as soon as she is allowed, even if it means navigating checkpoints.
“I’ve told my family I will join them immediately, even if it means going on foot. … I am eager for next Sunday to come,” she says.
Yet Suad Ghoula, a nurse who is also displaced in Deir al-Balah, is more subdued in her response.
“Once I heard the news and announcement of a ceasefire, I didn’t comment,” she says. “I have been disappointed many times; I am afraid of having new hope, only to be disappointed again.”
Enduring disagreements
The ceasefire agreement, almost identical to a May 2024 blueprint proposed by the U.S., leaves unanswered questions for each thorny issue it attempts to address. The deal, a copy of which was obtained by the Monitor, calls for new negotiations by the 16th day of the ceasefire, over a more contentious second phase.
This second phase entails a full cessation of hostilities; the start of a “complete withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Gaza; the return of the remaining 65 Israeli hostages, mainly military-aged men held by Hamas; and the release of hundreds more Palestinian prisoners.
Talks would then pivot to a third phase, during which Hamas would return the remains of deceased hostages, and the reconstruction of Gaza, a massive undertaking, would be launched.
Yet few figures in Israeli politics have expressed support for a full withdrawal from Gaza. Israeli officials have repeatedly stated they have no near-term plans to leave Gaza while Hamas retains a fighting force and an ability to fire rockets at Israel.
The first phase calls for a gradual Israeli withdrawal from the Netzarim corridor, an Israeli military zone cutting off Gaza City and northern Gaza from the rest of the strip. Mr. Netanyahu has vowed a continued Israeli presence in the corridor, where Israel has built military bases.
To the south, Israel is due to completely evacuate its forces from the Philadelphi corridor running along Gaza’s border with Egypt by Day 50. Mr. Netanyahu insists Israel maintain control over the corridor to seal off the strip, while Hamas demands full Israeli withdrawal.
Also in the first six weeks, Palestinians would be allowed to return to their homes in Gaza City and the north through checkpoints, though it remains unclear who will be controlling these checkpoints.
Among other lingering disputes is who would operate the vital Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza.
The path forward
In unveiling the deal late Wednesday, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Al Thani said the ceasefire will be supported by a “mechanism” in place involving Egypt, the U.S., and Qatar to address violations and tackle hurdles as they arise, to prevent its unraveling.
But opposition to the deal persists.
Israel’s Religious Zionism party, led by far-right provocateur and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, threatened to quit the government unless Mr. Netanyahu provided “guarantees that the war will continue” after conclusion of the first phase. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, issued his own threat.
Small protests erupted in Jerusalem Thursday, with dozens of right-leaning demonstrators and parents of fallen soldiers holding up placards reading, “Yes to victory, no to surrender.”
“My assumption is the war is over,” said the Haaretz daily’s military correspondent Amos Harel in a briefing with reporters, noting likely pressure from the incoming Trump administration. “We have not completed victory against Hamas,” he added. “That promise was made and never fulfilled.”
If the ceasefire is to lead to lasting peace, the question of postwar governance in Gaza is crucial. The Palestinian Authority, which insists on being the sole governing entity in Gaza, is rejecting an Egyptian attempt to establish a governing committee under the PA’s auspices with Hamas’ approval.
If Hamas continues to govern Gaza, “The real fear is that all of this fighting was just another round,” says Shira Efron, a senior analyst at the Israel Policy Forum, a think tank.
“That is why if we don’t seriously spend the next 42 days identifying options for a transitional authority in Gaza that is the Palestinian Authority supported by Arab and international players, we may well find ourselves with a very adverse outcome,” she adds.
“This situation is unlike anything we’ve experienced; I fear we might face another war soon,” says Ms. Ata, the Gaza aid worker, “while we search for loved ones and relatives.”
Dina Kraft contributed reporting from Arles, France.
