It’s been a journey into the unknown, but the new-look 36-team Champions League is finally reaching the climax of the league phase.
While we’re starting to get some kind of idea of who’s going to go through, a lot can happen in the final round. We only know two of the eight clubs that will go straight through to the round of 16, and 18 of the 24 teams who will be in the knockout rounds.
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That said, nine teams have already been eliminated with only three more to come — so jeopardy is limited.
Unlike in previous seasons, no teams will drop into the Europa League from the Champions League.
Unexpectedly, Man City are in real danger of being eliminated, which might not have been the case under the old format.
Let’s take a look at what’s at stake and how the final matchday is shaping up.
How does it work?
The teams in position 1-8 go straight to the round of 16, and won’t have to play games in February.
The clubs in places 9-24 will face the playoff round next month.
Those in 25th to 36th are eliminated.
Does it matter where you finish in the table?
Yes, because the league placings create the knockout bracket. Unlike in previous seasons, where there would be open draws, paths will be set after this phase has been completed.
The new “seeding” system means the highest-placed teams can’t face each other until the latter stages of the knockout round.
For instance, if we look at the table right now, Liverpool and Barcelona are in first and second and they would not be able to play each other until the final. The teams in third and fourth — currently Arsenal and Inter Milan — can’t play Liverpool or Barcelona until the semifinals.
However, the value of being placed high in the table has been complicated by poor European seasons for Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid, who have unexpectedly become possible opponents earlier in the knockout rounds.
The teams in first and second will play 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the round of 16 and top clubs could yet finish in those positions. Bayern Munich (15th), Real Madrid (16th), Juventus (17th) and Celtic (18th) are there right now.
Finishing seventh or eighth is to be avoided, as that creates a direct collision course with first and second in the quarterfinals.
What are the league phase tiebreakers?
1 – Goal difference
2 – Goals scored
3 – Away goals scored
4 – Wins
5 – Away wins
6 – Higher number of total points collected by league phase opponents*
7 – Higher goal difference attained of league phase opponents*
8 – Higher goals scored by league phase opponents*
9 – Disciplinary points
10 – UEFA club coefficient.
*You add up the record of the eight teams faced in the league phase, effectively creating a difficulty level of opponents.
Manchester City will need to win their final league-phase game to make the knockouts. Mike Hewitt/Getty Images
Who is already through to the knockout rounds?
Round of 16 (2):
Liverpool are guaranteed to finish first or second, and thus take a top seeding position in the bracket.
Barcelona have also secured a top-eight finish with a dramatic winner in a 5-4 comeback victory at Benfica.
Guaranteed at least a place in the knockout playoff round (16):
AC Milan, Arsenal, AS Monaco, Aston Villa, Atalanta, Atlético Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Brest, Celtic, Feyenoord, Internazionale, Juventus, Lille, Real Madrid
Will make the knockout playoffs or be eliminated (9):
Benfica, Club Brugge, Dinamo Zagreb, Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, PSV Eindhoven, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Stuttgart
Out (9):
Bologna, RB Leipzig, Red Star Belgrade, Sparta Prague, RB Leipzig, RB Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Sturm Graz, Young Boys
How it looks: the battle to go through
Before the competition began it was thought that 16 points would secure a place in the top eight, but the low spread of points at the bottom of the table means it could take 17 points to be absolutely certain of going through. It’s possible to finish outside the top eight on goal difference with 16 points.
1. Liverpool (21 points, goal difference +13)
PSV Eindhoven (a)
The Reds are through and certain to finish in the top 2.
2. Barcelona (18, +15)
Atalanta (h)
A direct place in the round of 16 is booked and they can finish no lower than sixth, though goal difference realistically means they will be top four at worst.
They must win at home to Atalanta to be absolutely sure of a top-two finish.
3. Arsenal (16, +12)
Girona (a)
4. Internazionale (16, +7)
AS Monaco (h)
The two clubs could both still miss out on goal difference if they lose, with five teams sat outside the top eight on 13 points. However, it is very unlikely and instead they will be looking for wins to secure a top-four place.
Arsenal are effectively certain of being top eight with a goal difference of +12. For the Gunners to go out it would take a defeat plus SIX of the following: Any result in AS Monaco/Inter BUT if Monaco win it would need a huge GD swing; victories for Atlético Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta, (and with a big GD swing for the following teams) Aston Villa, Bayer Leverkusen, Brest, Feyenoord/Lille.
Leverkusen, with +6, have the best goal difference of the teams on 13 points so it would take a massive swing even for the Bundesliga club to overtake Arsenal. And with AS Monaco/Inter and Feyenoord/Lille playing each other, the chances are further limited.
Inter are marginally less safe with goal difference of +7, Monaco would overtake Inter, who have only let in one goal, with a win by 2+ goals, and it would then require victories for four of Atlético Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta, Aston Villa, Bayer Leverkusen, Brest, Feyenoord/Lille. If Inter lose by one goal, it would need five victories from that list.
5. Atlético Madrid (15, +5)
RB Salzburg (a)
6. AC Milan (15, +4)
Dinamo Zagreb (a)
A win for Atlético and Milan would send both clubs through to the round of 16.
A draw could be enough, but it would place them right on the edge of qualification and into a goal difference battle on 16 points. Aston Villa, Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen would go above both clubs with any win, while it would be close for AS Monaco on GD, but Brest and Feyenoord/Lille would need a multiple-goal swing.
A loss is highly unlikely to keep them top eight on 15 points, with 12 clubs below them able to finish on 15+ points.
7. Atalanta (14, +14)
Barcelona (a)
The Serie A side’s 5-0 victory over Sturm Graz has put them right in contention for the top eight.
A draw could still see them through due to their vastly superior goal difference … but for that to work only one of Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, AS Monaco, Feyenoord/Lille and Brest can win.
Realistically, Atalanta must get a victory at Barcelona to go through directly.
8. Bayer Leverkusen (13, +6)
Sparta Prague (h)
9. Aston Villa (13, +5)
Celtic (h)
10. AS Monaco (13, +3)
Internazionale (a)
11. Feyenoord Rotterdam (13, +2)
Lille (a)
12. Lille (13, +2)
Feyenoord Rotterdam (h)
13. Brest (13, +2)
Real Madrid (h)
It’s a real hit and hope for all six sides on 13 points.
What do their chances look like? Arsenal (16) have far superior goal difference, while Inter (16), Atlético (15) and AC Milan (15) have favourable fixtures.
Does that mean there could be only one or two places to fight for in the top eight? Atalanta’s away game at Barcelona does open the door.
Leverkusen sit eighth right now but even a victory at home to Sparta Prague might not be enough, as Villa could win by a bigger margin and overtake them on goal difference.
AS Monaco have a tough trip to San Siro but would overtake Inter with a win of 2+ goals. The only thing is Inter have conceded just one goal in their seven matches.
Feyenoord and Lille play each other, but goal difference is problematic at +2. Brest, also on +2, must win at home to Real Madrid. For these three sides (and Monaco) to have a chance of the top eight, they will need three of the teams above them to draw or lose. It’s likely the knockout playoff round for this trio.
14. Borussia Dortmund (12, +8)
Shakhtar Donetsk (h)
15. Bayern Munich (12, +6)
Slovan Bratislava (h)
16. Real Madrid (12, +5)
Brest (a)
17. Juventus (12, +4)
Benfica (h)
18. Celtic (12,+1)
Aston Villa (a)
All five sides are assured of the knockout playoff round, and while mathematically they have a chance of making the top eight with a victory, it would take a crazy set of results to do so.
If four of the following happen, none of these clubs can make the top eight: Win/draw for Atlético Madrid, AC Milan and (because of GD) Atalanta; wins for Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, AS Monaco, Feyenoord/Lille, Brest.
19. PSV Eindhoven (11, +3)
Liverpool (h)
20. Club Brugge (11, -2)
Manchester City (a)
These are only two teams who, mathematically, could make the top eight (everyone above would have to lose or draw), be in the knockout playoff round or go out. Realistically, they are locked in the knockout playoff round — though Club Brugge could be made to sweat.
Club Brugge will be through if they avoid defeat at Man City. However, they would be overtaken by Man City if they lose at the Etihad, and the Belgian club would then have to hope they are not passed by the four clubs on 10 points. They are still in a strong position with a loss, as to go out it would take Stuttgart vs. PSG to be a draw plus both Benfica (away to Juve) and Sporting (home to Bologna) to draw or win.
PSV Eindhoven have a considerable buffer as they are five goals better off than Brugge. It would take a big loss, or a massive win for Dinamo Zagreb, along with those same results for Stuttgart vs. PSG, Benfica and Sporting for the Eredivisie club to go out.
21. Benfica (10, +2)
Juventus (a)
22. Paris Saint-Germain (10, +2)
VfB Stuttgart (a)
23. Sporting CP (10, +1)
Bologna (h)
24. VfB Stuttgart (10, -1)
Paris Saint-Germain (h)
All four teams know that victory secures a place in the knockout playoff round.
Benfica, Paris Saint-Germain and Sporting CP effectively only need a draw as Zagreb’s goal difference is so inferior, and Stuttgart vs. PSG means at least one of those two teams would definitely be lower.
Stuttgart are most in danger of being overtaken by Man City with a draw/loss. However, if they draw they could get out of jail if one of Benfica or Sporting CP were to lose.
All the teams on 10 points are in danger, however.
If Man City or Dinamo Zagreb win, any could be eliminated with a defeat. If two or three of the clubs are beaten then 24th place would could come down to goal difference.
Sporting and Stuttgart have similar goal difference. If they both lose and that finishes identical then Stuttgart finish higher on away wins.
25. Manchester City (8, +2)
Club Brugge (h)
26. Dinamo Zagreb (8, -8)
AC Milan (h)
Man City sit outside the top 24 but they are guaranteed to qualify and go above Club Brugge on goal difference with any win. The only question is whether that would be at the expense of the Belgian club, or one of the teams on 10 points.
Dinamo Zagreb have slim hope due to goal difference. They must win at home to AC Milan and get at least two of: Benfica lose, Sporting lose, PSG/Stuttgart not to draw, Man City draw or lose.
27. Shakhtar Donetsk (7, -6)
Borussia Dortmund (a)
Shakhtar Donetsk would have to win first of all. Manchester City and Dinamo Zagreb must fail to win. And one of the teams on 10 points must lose with a big goal difference swing.
28. Bologna (5, -5)
Sporting CP (a)
29. Sparta Prague (4, -12)
Bayer Leverkusen (a)
30. RB Leipzig (3, -6)
SK Sturm Graz (a)
31. Girona (3, -7)
Arsenal (h)
32. Red Star Belgrade (3, -10)
Young Boys (a)
33. SK Sturm Graz (3, -10)
RB Leipzig (h)
34. RB Salzburg (3, -19)
Real Madrid (a), Atlético Madrid (h)
35. Slovan Bratislava (0, -18)
Bayern Munich (a)
36. Young Boys (0, -20)
Red Star Belgrade (h)
The bottom nine have been eliminated.
How does the final round of games work?
All 18 matches are played at the same time in a bumper round where every goal will change the table.
The games take place at 3 p.m. ET, 8 p.m. UK on Wednesday, Jan. 29.
When is the draw for the knockout rounds?
The draw for the knockout playoff round — featuring the clubs that finish ninth to 24th — will take place on Friday, Jan. 31 at 6 a.m. ET / 11 a.m. UK.
How does the knockout draw work?
In the knockout playoff round draw, teams are paired by their final position
Before the draw, teams will have two possible opponents.
For instance, 21st (Benfica) and 22nd (PSG) will be paired to play either 11th (Feyenoord) or 12th (Lille).
The two pairs of fixtures will then be drawn into opposite halves of the bracket.
The teams placed 9th to 16th are seeded and will be at home in the second leg.
First legs: Feb. 11-12, 2025
Second legs: Feb. 18-19, 2025
After the knockout playoff round draw, the teams who finish inside the top eight will still have four possible opponents.
For instance, fifth (Inter) and sixth (AC Milan) would still be able to play any of 11th, 12th, 21st and 22nd.
Once the knockout playoff round is complete, the teams in fifth and sixth would have two possible opponents remaining, the winners of those ties.
The round of 16 draw then takes place on Friday, Feb. 21, when fifth and sixth would be drawn into opposite halves of the bracket — which would create a fixture against a winner of a knockout playoff round tie.
The teams placed 1st to 8th are seeded and will be at home in the second leg.
First legs: March 4-5, 2025
Second legs: March 11-12, 2025
The knockout bracket is now set. There is one more draw, straight after the round of 16 draw, to determine the home teams in the second leg for the quarterfinals and semifinals.
