Do you see what happens when MotoGP comes down with a reasonably strong case of the “bozo gene”?
I’ve joked about it on this website and my podcast that the Bozo has been a detrimental factor at the top end of MotoGP for a good few years. Pecco Bagania could be about to win his third consecutive World Championship and yet I’m still not fully convinced he’s one of the best of all time because there’s been heavy flaws in all three of his title campaigns to date. Jorge Martin is one of the fastest riders we’ve ever seen, but he completely collapsed at the end of 2023 when he had a chance to beat Pecco.
2024 has done little to alleviate that concern. If anything, it’s added more potential question marks to the list. Marc Marquez is still great but probably isn’t the world breaker he was in 2019 (And let’s be honest, he’s always had a mistake in him). Enea Bastianini on his day is as quick as anyone, but often only in the back half of a race. Even Pedro Acosta, the future phenom is still overcoming early career dropsies. And his reign has us looking over at Brad Binder and going…”Are you actually all that good?”
Bagnaia won his ninth Grand Prix of the season in Thailand this past week, and the only man who realistically challenged him was Marc Marquez, who tucked the front and crashed when running him extremely close. It led to a friend of the show Kevin saying: “Marc could have won this Championship?”, taking a crack at the Antman’s mistakes and thinking there was a chance he could have won it all, with Marc now sitting 98 points behind Jorge Martin and now mathematically out of the running with just 74 points left available at time of writing?
But is that true? Is there a scenario where Marc could have won the title? Let’s set up an experiment. Call me MotoGP’s Jon Bois.
The Parameters
Now I see why Kev made the statement. There’s one obvious recent example that’s worth mentioning – Enea Bastianini’s 2022. He was at Gresini that season, armed with a GP21 compared to Bagnaia’s 22. Bastianini was brilliant in the first half of that season with Ducati still figuring out the configuration of their bike and engine worked best – they had three different specs between themselves, Bestia’s Gresini and Pramac’s full-bodied GP22 setup, with the factory team running a hybrid of the two settings wise.
The Beast won three races before the summer break, four in total, but ultimately couldn’t sustain a full campaign, finishing 46 points off the Champion. Remember, this was a pre-Sprint format, and while Bagnaia won seven races that year, he also crashed five times, the most of any Champion in the MotoGP era (2001-). Could Marc have done the same in 2024?
So here’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to move the goalposts intentionally. Now wait, don’t leave just yet! I will be reasonable here and not just assume that if Marquez doesn’t bin it, he wins. I’ll try to use circumstantial evidence where I can based on practice times, qualifying times, race pace, vibes, and how the results played out to be what I would call “reasonable”, in terms of giving Marc as much of a “benefit of the doubt” that I can, without going Godmodding like a D&D player. No Natrual 20’s here.
You’ll see as I piece together the rounds. Of course, I will also adjust anyone else’s scoring that has this affected. So for example, if Jorge Martin originally finished a race in 2nd, but now I’ve put Marquez there from a DNF, Marquez’s score is now +20, while Martin’s -4 because it’s 20 points for second in MotoGP and 16 for third. Hopefully, that makes sense.
Now then. Let’s play God.
Round 1 – Qatar
Originally, Jorge Martin comfortably won the Sprint from Brad Binder and Aleix Espargaro (Remember them?). Then in the Grand Prix, Francesco Bagnaia took early control and then didn’t look back, ahead of Binder and Martin, now third. Marc Marquez was still nowhere near 100%, still getting the muscle memory back in his injured right arm, and learning the GP23 in full race conditions. Originally, he was fifth in the Sprint, and fourth in the Grand Prix.
I was tempted to swing for a couple of little things here, such as his final qualifying lap having three red splits before a mistake in Sector 4, and the minor mistake running wide during the Sprint. Still, I think Marquez wasn’t quick enough when it mattered for me to change either of his results. So Qatar remains unchanged for me.
Francesco Bagnaia – 31, Jorge Martin – 29, Marc Marquez – 18
Round 2 – Portugal
First real tricky one here. Maverick Vinales won the Sprint by just over a second originally, with Marquez pulling off a brilliant final lap pass on Martin to take second. We’ll leave that alone. The Grand Prix was the first major Pecco flashpoint of 2024. You know the story. Late on, Marquez tries that same move down the hill at Turn 5, deep dive on the inside, runs wide. Bagnaia tries the cutback as Marquez fights for the same bit of road, there’s contact, and both go down. Looking back on it now, I’m stunned Bagnaia didn’t get more criticism for straight-up riding into the side of Marc while being nowhere near the apex. Weird.
Now, how do I adjust this? I think the fairest thing to do here would be to reinstate both Bagania’s fifth and Marc Marquez’s 6th instead of their DNFs, assuming Bagnaia doesn’t do the silly. Amazingly, my fairness has actually given Pecco an extra point advantage here. If nothing else, I am a fair God. Sort of. Jorge Martin keeps his GP win.
Jorge Martin – 60, Francesco Bagnaia – 48, Marc Marquez – 37
Round 3 – Austin
Another spicy meatball. Again, Sprint is going unchanged, Maverick Vinales wins there by 2.2 seconds, and Marquez was a clear second. The Grand Prix is another big Marquez flashpoint. Just as he takes the lead of the race, he crashes going down the hill towards the hairpin at Turn 11. As it turns out, Marc’s front brake wasn’t working properly due to losing pressure on the first squeeze. By the time he got it, it was too late and Marquez couldn’t get it stopped, tucking the front.
Now, I class this one as a mechanical failure, and a freaky one. So I’m going to give Marquez second place here. I still think Maverick Vinales doubles up here, he was in another league at COTA. But I think giving Marquez second place is fair here. As a result, it shuffles Martin down to fifth, losing him two points, and Bagnaia one as he drops from fifth to sixth.
Jorge Martin – 78, Marc Marquez – 66, Francesco Bagnaia – 49
Round 4 – Jerez
Another tricky one, for different reasons. The Sprint here was a goddamn mess. Weekend rain meant the moisture on the track kept resurfacing to Jerez’s tarmac being rather porous. It made the Sprint Race a nightmare, with 15 crashes in just 12 laps of racing. Five riders also violated the tyre pressure regulations. Marc Marquez was leading the Sprint when he crashed it… do we give it back to him? Fuck it, give it to him, he now wins the Sprint, with Jorge Martin second, and Pedro Acosta third. (Remember, Bagnaia was… shall we say, punted a tad by Binder here)
The Grand Prix, I’m going to leave alone. Bagania and Marquez had a terrific scrap, and Bagnaia’s excellent around Jerez, arguably his strongest circuit. I think Bagnaia was just about the stronger man on the day, so we’ll leave that 1-2 finish as is. Jorge Martin tucked the front in the GP from the lead, so he lost 3 more points on the weekend for the Sprint demotion.
Marc Marquez – 98, Jorge Martin – 87, Francesco Bagnaia – 74
Round 5 – Le Mans
This was the first of the proper Marquez qualifying struggle rounds. Marquez didn’t make Q2, period. Partly due to struggling in practice, and also partly due to a late yellow at the end of Q1 cancelling a boatload of laps. Marquez would mount a furious comeback to P2 in the Sprint Race and do the same again in the race, taking advantage of the Martin/Bagnaia fight to stay in range, and then nail Bagnaia with for me, one of the passes of the season on the final lap.
I don’t think a higher grid spot would have made a huge difference here. Marquez’s race pace was great, but I don’t think it was enough to beat Martin in a Sprint or the Grand Prix. We’ll leave this one as is. PS: Remember, Bagnaia’s engine detonated in the Sprint, hence the compromised score.
Marc Marquez – 127, Jorge Martin – 124, Francesco Bagnaia – 90
Round 6 – Catalunya
Another round where Marquez struggled in practice. P13 there, P14 in qualifying, and yet another furious comeback. Marquez got back up to P2 in the Sprint, and then a distant P3 in the race. Again, don’t think a higher grid spot would have changed much here. Bagnaia would have won the Sprint at a canter if he hadn’t lost concentration on the final lap and crashed, gifting the win to Aleix Espargaro the weekend of his retirement announcement. Bagnaia won the Grand Prix with Marquez 10 seconds behind. Given the convincing wins, I don’t think anything changes here, Espargaro’s always gone well at Barcelona. Reminder: Martin was 4th in the Sprint and 2nd in the GP here.
Marc Marquez – 156, Jorge Martin – 150, Francesco Bagnaia – 115
Round 7 – Italy
Mugello is another round we’re not going to mess with here as I don’t think there’s much to gain. For me, this is the round where the GP24s start to turn up the wick in terms of dominance. Pecco Bagnaia is perfect on the weekend and I don’t think anything was getting in the way of that. Jorge Martin crashed in the Sprint and got beaten into third on the final corner of the GP by Enea Bastianini. Marc Marquez qualified fourth, finished second in the Sprint and was a comfortable fourth in the Grand Prix. Leave it be.
PS: Welcome to the “Bagnaia Block”.
Marc Marquez – 178, Jorge Martin – 166, Francesco Bagnaia – 152
Round 8 – Assen
Assen was Bagnaia’s Magnum Opus. A perfect weekend, a Super Grand Slam of winning both races from the pole with the fastest lap and leading every lap over the line. Completely untouchable the whole way through. Jorge Martin could only play backup in second on both occasions trying to keep chase (unsuccessfully).
Marc Marquez had an erratic one. He crashed out on Lap 2 of the Sprint and you have to call it a rider error given he took too much kerb at Turn 1. He finished 5th on the road in the race, but a 16-second tyre pressure penalty dropped him to 16th. I’m leaving the Sprint alone because a rider error for me is a rider error, and well, Marquez knew he was close with the tyre pressures because he was messing about with Fabio Di Giannantonio on track, and it didn’t work out. Leaving it alone and this drops Marc back to third in the standings.
Jorge Martin – 195, Francesco Bagnaia – 189, Marc Marquez – 184
Round 9 – Germany
Now this is a tricky one again here. Marc Marquez damaged his hand in a Friday crash at the waterfall. He’d ride through it, but it hampered his prep for the weekend. He was eliminated in Q1 and ended up 13th on the grid as a result. He recovered to 6th in the Sprint, and then second in the Grand Prix after Jorge Martin crashed from the lead on the penultimate lap.
This one’s tough because Germany is very hard to pass around these days, and Marquez’s late-race pace was superb. He was the fastest on the track by miles in the closing laps, as much as half a second a lap quicker. He ended up second… and I’m going to keep him there. The poor qualifying on the weekend was largely of Marquez’s own making and shortcomings as a Ducati rider, not circumstance. If he qualified better, maybe he would win the GP… but even then, how are you passing Bagnaia here? Leaving this one be, Marquez back into second in the standings.
Francesco Bagnaia – 221, Marc Marquez – 208, Jorge Martin – 207
Round 10 – Silverstone
This was another strange weekend. Enea Bastianini was the dominant force after his rear tyre management ripped the field open in the final half of the race. Francesco Bagnaia crashed in the Sprint, as did Marc Marquez, with Martin second. As for the GP, again, Bestia won, Martin second, Bagnaia’s tyres fell off hard at the end of the race but still finished a second ahead of Marquez. If Marc went all out, maybe he would get third, but I think in combination with the seventh in qualifying, this was a realistic result. Not touching this one either.
Francesco Bagnaia – 237, Jorge Martin – 236, Marc Marquez – 221
Round 11 – Austria
Pecco Bagania. Again. Any further questions?
Jorge Martin could only follow along in second on both occasions here. Sadly for Marquez, another crash in the Sprint, tucking the front from third. He’d bring home a safe fourth in the GP, 13 seconds off the win, and 6 seconds behind third-placed Bastianini. There was nothing on here in my opinion. It’s starting to slip away for Marquez…
Francesco Bagnaia – 274, Jorge Martin – 265, Marc Marquez – 234
Round 12 – Aragon
Yeah.
Jorge Martin – 294, Francesco Bagnaia – 275, Marc Marquez – 271
Round 13 – San Marino
Another crummy Marquez qualifying session put him in P9, and the Sprint didn’t have an awful lot on really, a distant P5 was the best he was going to get after a late dice with Pedro Acosta. Martin taking the Sprint ahead of Bagnaia would have been significant… if it wasn’t for the race.
Martin’s gamble for wet tyres I still maintain was a viable one that would have guaranteed him a win if it was just a little bit heavier. But sadly for him, it wasn’t and he could only manage 15th. Marquez, who’s always excelled in damp conditions, wins, with Bagnaia taking the smart play and settling for second. Not changing anything with Marquez here. Also, look at the goddamn scoreboard now, just six points covering the three protagonists…
Jorge Martin – 307, Francesco Bagnaia – 304, Marc Marquez – 301
Round 14 – Emilia-Romagna
And it all twists again. The GP24s dominated, locking out the Sprint Podium, with Bagnaia taking the win and Marquez a distant 4th with no real chance of anything more. In the GP, Enea Bastianini punted Jorge Martin off at Turn 4 to win the race, while Pecco Bagnaia pushed too hard trying to recover from third, crashing out. This promotes Marquez to third. Given the latter was too busy dealing with a surprisingly on-form Marco Bezzecchi, I don’t think there’s anything to change here either.
Jorge Martin – 336, Marc Marquez – 323, Francesco Bagnaia – 316
Round 15 – Indonesia
At last, action! Well, Championship action, the weekend itself was cheeks. Marquez starts P12 after crashing twice in Qualifying off his own back, and the Sprint isn’t getting changed, with Marquez surging through the field to finish third, unable to hold off Bagnaia after Martin crashes at the final corner sequence.
The GP is a mess though. Super hot conditions, a lack of grip, and a Lap 1 wreck meant only 12 bikes crossed the line, and Marquez’s bike came down with a mild case of explosions. He’s out. Now as this is a mechanical failure, I want to restore it. But where? Marquez was running in seventh place at the time his bike caught fire. Enea Bastianini crashed out from third after the fact. I think sixth is a fair and modest reflection of his speed and where he would have likely finished. So that’s what we’ll do. Martin wins with Acosta second and Bagnaia third.
Jorge Martin – 361, Francesco Bagnaia – 344, Marc Marquez – 340
Round 16 – Japan
Another tricky one. This really could have been Pedro Acosta’s weekend, but he crashed twice in both the Sprint and the GP. Marquez had a pole time in the back pocket in the sketchy conditions on Saturday morning but got dinged for hitting the green, and due to a software glitch, he was robbed of a chance to go again. Now, if he started pole instead of ninth, do we flip a result? Honestly… leaning towards no on this one. Acosta had genuine race-winning pace, especially in the Sprint, and even with the qualifying, Marquez was 3rd in the Sprint and .35 off the win, and four seconds off the win in the GP. Either way, I think Bagnaia cleans house here, so I’m going to keep the results the same on this one. Jorge Martin had to mitigate the damage here, fourth in the Sprint and second in the GP.
Jorge Martin – 387, Francesco Bagnaia – 381, Marc Marquez – 363
Round 17 – Philip Island
Again, nothing to change here. I don’t think you need me to go into much detail as to why. 2nd in the Sprint, and arguably his most impressive ride of the year to beat Martin straight up in the GP. Bagnaia gets 4th in the Sprint, and 3rd in the GP, Martin takes 29 points from the Sprint win and the GP 2nd, and Marquez 34 from the reversal.
Jorge Martin – 416, Francesco Bagnaia – 403, Marc Marquez – 397
Round 18 – Thailand
And this is likely where the Marquez title challenge collapses. Bastianini would take the Sprint, with Martin 2nd, Bagnaia 3rd and Marquez 4th, but this was where the latter would crash going just a little bit too far in chasing Bagnaia down for the win, and would end up 11th. Bagnaia wins the GP, Martin 2nd. Likely, one mistake was too many, and because it was a rider error, I’m not going to change it.
Jorge Martin – 445, Francesco Bagnaia – 435, Marc Marquez – 408
Round 19 – Sepang
And here’s the big Bagnaia flashpoint, a crash in the Sprint, that Martin would go on to win. Ouch. Marquez was close in that Sprint in 2nd (within a second), but I don’t think he was going to realistically win the Sprint. Of course, Marquez also crashed in the Grand Prix, ending any realistic chance of the title, coming back to finish 12th. Le sigh. Bagnaia of course, would go on to win that, with Martin second.
Jorge Martin – 477, Francesco Bagnaia – 460, Marc Marquez – 421
Final Round – Solidarity GP (Barcelona 2)
And finally, the solidarity GP. Marquez was poor in the Sprint, only managing 7th and not digging the setup of the bike at all. It was only a late change on Sunday morning that got him his pace back, with a strong second-place finish in the GP to Bagnaia. The Italian doubled up on the weekend, with Martin third on both occasions. Throw that into the calculator and…
Dre’s Scoring: Jorge Martin – 500, Francesco Bagnaia – 497, Marc Marquez – 444
Actual Championship: Jorge Martin – 508, Francesco Bagnaia – 498, Marc Marquez – 392
Dre’s Conclusion
Interesting. My “reasonable calculation” was that Marquez gained 52 points via the shenanigans of others, mostly the mechanical failures in COTA and Indonesia, and the Portimao clash. It turns out Bagnaia’s scoring total remained virtually the same, while Martin’s consistency likely hurt him more on this simulation, losing eight points to his actual total. But it was still enough to win the title by just three points rather than 10.
Marquez ends up 46 shy instead of 116. Cuts the deficit by more than half. Now, I did run a backup metric – If I gave Marquez every benefit of the doubt on the season, every place from where he crashed, the score would be 499. Once you factor in the deductions of others, that would be enough to win the title. But that’s really stretching the limits of believability. And of course, as much as you factor in the butterfly effect, we’re not optimising for Bagnaia or Martin’s seasons either, and you wouldn’t need to change much for them to still come out on top.
The very nature of Marquez’s season led us to this point. He’s an incredible rider, who adapted to the challenges of Ducati extremely well. The man most modest about his campaign, was Marc himself, where so many of his fans and pundits were adamant he was a contender until they realised the GP24 was so cracked compared to the 23. He’s always pushed beyond the limit to figure out where it is, crashes and all. It’s what makes him so potent and so fast when it truly matters. It’s why next year, I have him as my favourite for the title.
So, all things considered – No, Marc Marquez probably couldn’t have won the 2024 World Championship. Probably a bit closer than he’d give credit for, mind you.
Thanks for reading. Coming soon, Could Lando Norris have won the F1 title?
