At first glance, the ceasefire agreement carefully delineates a roadmap for the future, characterized by three distinct phases, each lasting approximately six weeks to 42 days. So why, despite the ceasefire agreement, is there still no trust or confidence in peace? And why does it not signal an end to the war?
It goes without saying that throughout history, every time Israelis and Palestinians inch closer to a peace agreement, there are signs of discord, both through politics and violence.
So the key questions are, first, what risks and challenges are there going forward regarding the execution of the trade, and who are the potential spoilers? Second, at this point in the conflict cycle, Hamas has been significantly weakened, but despite Israel’s strength, it has not been completely eradicated as a relevant actor.
In such a scenario, would Israel’s far-right forces, especially the spoilers of the Netanyahu coalition, concede anything other than the complete removal of Hamas from Gaza?
Meanwhile, will the Iranian-backed “Axis of Resistance” (which also includes Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen) honor the Israeli-Hamas agreement? And related to this, will Israel maintain a security presence in the Gaza Strip? Yes, would that be acceptable to Hamas?
Third, while the drums of humanitarian aid and reconstruction are sounding both for relief and dire need, it remains to be seen how this will be portrayed and interpreted in the third and most important phase of the ceasefire agreement. still remains silent.
For example, Israel and even the United States will want to exclude Hamas from all aid and reconstruction efforts in Gaza. But an important question remains: Is this actually achievable? And last but not least, the shaky plank of a ceasefire could somehow alleviate the hurt, fear, and trauma that ordinary Palestinians see every day and have been treated as nonentities by the world at large. Is it?
Three-stage trading and schedule risk
The first phase will involve hostage and prisoner exchanges and humanitarian aid, while the second phase, which is to be negotiated from the 16th after the first phase, is the most controversial and calls for a complete end to the war. be.
The third and final phase calls for peace and reconstruction efforts in Gaza. The deal offers hope for a temporary ceasefire, especially in the first phase, but the path forward may not lead to an end to the war.
There are two obvious problems with this template. First, will Israel’s far-right coalition allow the war to end completely without the annihilation of Hamas? In such a scenario, the United States, Qatar, and Egypt are committed to security, but will they actually have the strength to see through phases two and three of this agreement?
Additionally, the third phase would include rebuilding Gaza, which would include aid and governance. Will Hamas agree to be left out of this process? If Hamas continues to lead the process, aid will not flow in.
In this regard, it is still unclear whether Israel will withdraw from the buffer zone by a certain date or whether its presence in the buffer zone will become unlimited. Since the end of 2023, Israel has made clear its position that it will maintain the security of the entire Gaza Strip in the future, but this point could again stand in the way of a ceasefire agreement in its later stages.
More importantly, the ceasefire is a welcome first step, and while the world celebrates the cessation of violence, important questions about the Palestinians’ long-standing struggle for statehood and aspirations for freedom and sovereignty are being raised. However, it has been relegated to the frozen zone.
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Spoilers for this very fragile ceasefire
Ceasefires remain susceptible to both politics and violence. History proves this pattern. A similar pattern overshadowed the Oslo Peace Accords, for example. During the Oslo process, each time the negotiations inch closer to progress, spoilers who oppose the peace talks more broadly and have a vested interest in continuing the war sow discord through politics and violence.
It is important to recognize that actors in situations of protracted conflict still bear severe responsibilities and firmly hold their positions. This is because it greatly affects the credibility of its reputation and its control over domestic voters. The case has strong grounds for both Israel, Hamas, and all regional actors, including Iran and Lebanon.
That is why, for example, members of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition oppose the deal, insisting that nothing short of the complete annihilation of Hamas is acceptable.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said the deal was a “disaster” for Israel’s national security and said his Religious Zionist party would not return to war with Hamas after the first six-week phase of the ceasefire was completed. If not, he has threatened to resign from the government. .
However, there is only limited hope that Prime Minister Netanyahu may be able to seal a deal, avoiding the argument that Israel would switch support to the incoming Trump administration, but at what cost. You can lose the support of your strongest allies without even paying.
At the same time, important questions remain. Will the Iranian-backed “axis of resistance” (which also includes Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis) abide by the ceasefire agreement? It is important to recognize here that the war has significantly changed the military capabilities of the major armed groups. For example, the Lebanon-based organization Hezbollah has significantly reduced its strength, Syria is witnessing regime change, and Iran is weakening despite a renewed spirit of resistance.
It is important to note that although Hamas has significantly reduced military capabilities and leadership, it still has the potential to increase further and continue to engage in both war and violence. More importantly, Israel is still able to maintain its presence and has not been erased from the map, as it had hoped.
Also read: Why the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is unlikely to end in our lifetimes
There’s a long way to go
Although a ceasefire is a welcome first step, it risks freezing the conflict, once again pushing the issue of Palestinian statehood to the sidelines. It is important to recognize that Israel and Hamas are just one vehicle for the conflict, and the conflict does not necessarily begin on October 7, 2023.
The emphasis is on paying attention to the history and politics of settler colonialism, as well as concerns about violence. And sadly, the root causes of the conflict remain unresolved, and the international community remains complicit in many ways in history’s bloodiest war.
Shweta Singh is an Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations, University of South Asia
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