Latest data from the European Social Survey shows that trust in Britain’s institutions is deteriorating.
Trust is important because governance often involves persuading people to do things or that things will be better in the future. This becomes increasingly difficult to do when trust is declining. Trust in political institutions is especially important when governments have to make unpopular decisions, such as raising taxes.
Twenty years of data shows that trust in parliaments, political parties and politicians has declined significantly. The following questions have been asked in the European Social Survey over time:
On a scale of 0 to 10, please indicate how much you personally trust each of the following institutions. 0 means no trust in the institution and 10 means complete trust in the institution.
The decline in trust began in 2016, when confidence in politicians and political parties was at its lowest level in 20 years. Congress’s response has improved slightly, but the decline in trust in Congress is still noticeable. It is no coincidence that this decline began in 2016, the year of Brexit.
Average trust score for UK institutions, 2002-2022
Trust the slides. P Whiteley, CC BY-ND
However, the European Social Survey includes another important measure of trust: trust in fellow citizens. Survey questions ask how respondents feel about other people on an 11-point scale, with higher scores indicating more trust in people.
Average trust score in others in the UK, 2002-2022
Trust others. P Whiteley, CC BY-ND
After a rocky start in the early 2000s, Britain’s trust in others rose significantly in 2006, reaching over 5.35 on a scale of 11. It then fell in 2008 during the financial crisis. Recovery from this decline was complete by 2010. It is noteworthy that trust scores declined again in 2018, when the political impact of Brexit became evident. Trust was revived again in 2020 during the pandemic.
Therefore, our trust in each other is healthier than our trust in organizations. This is important because trust in others is an important measure of social capital, or people’s willingness to work together to solve social and economic problems in society. The importance of social capital in creating American prosperity was highlighted by American political scientist Bob Putnam in his best-selling book Bowling Alone.
British politicians lack trust. Flickr/British Parliament, CC BY-NC-ND
There is now a vast literature on social capital and trust, some of which focuses specifically on the UK. They found that trust fosters prosperity for a variety of reasons. When people trust each other, they are more likely to volunteer. This unpaid work helps provide social safety nets and promotes prosperity for all, even if it is not fully recognized in national income statistics.
Even in countries with high levels of trust, such as Denmark and Sweden, levels of corruption are low, and corruption is an impediment to growth. In a high-trust environment, the cost of doing business is lower because there is less need for complex contracts, expensive lawyers, and lots of litigation to get others to behave appropriately. This is part of the reason why countries with high trust are wealthier than countries with low trust.
It is well established that economic growth is driven by investment in innovation, skills, transport, additional manufacturing capacity and improved workplace productivity. But it is also true that social capital helps create economic growth. When we investigated this in different countries, we found that trust, along with other factors, is very important in driving economic growth.
Although governments have limited direct influence over social capital, they can foster influence by investing in voluntary organizations and increasing the transparency of their interactions with the public.
Britain has suffered from a lack of investment in capital and infrastructure, and has neglected investment in education for the past 15 years. Social capital appears to be in much better shape, but the UK government, facing the grave challenge of restoring growth, will need to pull all the tools at its disposal. Through their own actions, they can repair trust in politics, which is likely to help preserve the social capital that is part of the solution to restoring economic growth.
