Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Baltic Sea has become one of Europe’s most sensitive zones, serving as a testing ground for Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics. Positioned at the intersection of Moscow’s strategic interests and those of NATO member states, this semi-enclosed sea, almost surrounded by NATO nations, has become the site of repeated incidents involving sabotage, espionage, disinformation, and environmental threats.
In January 2024, Germany narrowly avoided such a disaster when the Eventin, a tanker carrying 99,000 tons of crude oil, drifted dangerously during a storm. (Picture source: Havaruekommando)
On January 12, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson summarized the situation succinctly: “We are not at war. But we are not at peace either.” While no open conflict is underway, hostile operations attributed to Moscow have increased, blending subtlety with aggression. Incidents include severed underwater cables, suspicious use of civilian vessels, GPS interference disrupting aviation, and phantom tankers posing risks of catastrophic oil spills—actions indicative of Russia’s exploitation of vulnerabilities in a region increasingly seen as a NATO-controlled zone.
The collapse of the Soviet Union marked a significant strategic setback for Russia in the Baltic. Once dominated by Moscow, the region’s coasts are now bordered by eight NATO member states following the accession of Finland and Sweden in 2023 and 2024. Russia’s access to the Baltic has been reduced to two points: the Kaliningrad exclave and the Gulf of Finland, where Saint Petersburg is located. These limited access points remain critical for a country reliant on ice-free ports along its western flank.
Despite these constraints, Russia has maintained its presence in the region. In the 2000s, Russian investors purchased strategically located lands near Finnish military bases and islands off Helsinki, enabling oversight of key maritime routes. Following the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has intensified its hostile activities, leveraging the Baltic’s shallow waters and detailed seabed mapping to conduct sabotage operations under the guise of civilian activity.
Sabotage incidents have become frequent in the past 15 months. At least eight telecommunication cables, one gas pipeline, and a high-voltage power line have been damaged in the Baltic. The method is often similar: civilian vessels such as cargo ships or tankers departing from Russian ports drag their anchors for kilometers, destroying underwater infrastructure while keeping their GPS transponders active. This tactic, identified as a core component of Russia’s hybrid strategy by the Wilson Center, mirrors an incident in January 2022 in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago. While the material impact is often limited, the main objective appears to be demonstrating the capability to disrupt critical systems and instilling concern among Western nations.
One incident stands out for its scale and complexity: the 2022 explosions on the Nord Stream pipeline. Responsibility for the attack remains unclear, despite extensive investigations. In 2024, an arrest warrant was issued for a Ukrainian diver, though Kyiv denies involvement and attributes the sabotage to Russia.
The threat extends beyond the seabed. At sea, Moscow employs a “phantom fleet” to circumvent international sanctions. This fleet, consisting of approximately 600 tankers—200 of which are directly linked to Russia—illegally transports oil to Asia and Africa. These vessels, often aging, uninsured, and sailing under flags of convenience, pose significant risks. A potential oil spill in the Baltic, a semi-enclosed sea with a fragile ecosystem, could have disastrous consequences. In January 2024, Germany narrowly avoided such a disaster when the Eventin, a tanker carrying 99,000 tons of crude oil, drifted dangerously during a storm.
These tankers are also suspected of engaging in other activities. Unusual antennas observed on certain ships suggest intelligence-gathering operations. Some of these vessels have been detected near critical undersea cables or strategic locations such as Gotland, a Swedish island that has seen increased militarization in recent years.
In the air, the situation is equally concerning. Since 2023, GPS interference in the Gulf of Finland and around Kaliningrad has disrupted aviation, forcing the suspension of certain commercial flights. In 2024, Finland reported over 2,800 GPS-jamming incidents compared to 200 the previous year. These actions, combined with “spoofing”—the manipulation of GPS signals to conceal a vessel’s actual location—illustrate the range of tools employed by Russia in this hybrid conflict.
In response to these escalating provocations, NATO has increased its efforts to secure the region. On January 14, 2025, the eight NATO member states bordering the Baltic launched “Baltic Sentinel,” an operation combining ships, aircraft, drones, and satellites to monitor and protect critical underwater infrastructure. This initiative complements efforts by the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, which uses artificial intelligence to detect and report suspicious activity in the area.
The Baltic Sea has become a focal point for the evolving confrontation between Russia and the West. Through covert sabotage, economic pressure, and military provocations, Moscow continues to challenge established norms despite growing isolation. As tensions persist, this strategically vital region remains at the forefront of Europe’s security concerns.
