In January 2025, satellite analyses published by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals (JINF) revealed advancements in the construction of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos in China. These developments, concentrated in strategic provinces such as Gansu, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, mark a significant milestone toward fully operational nuclear capabilities. Coupled with the reinforcement of military infrastructure, these advances raise questions about the geopolitical implications of China’s trajectory, potentially aiming for strategic parity with the United States by 2030.
On the left, a missile silo in Yumen, Gansu Province, with its camouflage net removed and lid in place, On the right, a missile silo in Yumen, Gansu Province, covered with camouflage nets (Picture source: Japan Institute for National Fundamentals)
Since April 2024, satellite imagery has shown rapid transformation at silo fields near Yumen in Gansu Province. Initially concealed under camouflage nets, the silos now feature visible covers approximately six meters in diameter, aligning with the specifications of the DF-31 missile series. Equipped with advanced security installations, these sites suggest imminent operational readiness. By September of the same year, military vehicles were observed at the facilities, indicating preparations for deployment.
The DF-31, unveiled at the National Day Parade in 1999, represents a key technological component of China’s missile arsenal. This three-stage, solid-fuel ICBM is mounted on a semi-trailer, ensuring enhanced mobility through its transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) system. With a length of 13 meters and a diameter of 2.25 meters, it can carry a payload of up to 1,750 kg, including a single nuclear warhead or multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). Guided by an inertial navigation system with GPS updates, the DF-31 has an estimated range of 8,000 to 11,700 km, capable of reaching the western United States.
The DF-41, a recent addition to China’s strategic capabilities, represents a substantial leap forward. This missile, mounted on a 16-wheeled TEL, measures 21 meters in length and boasts an extended range of 12,000 to 14,000 km. Designed to carry 10 to 12 MIRVs, it employs an inertial navigation system augmented by China’s COMPASS satellite navigation. With a maximum speed of Mach 25 and accuracy between 100 and 500 meters CEP, the DF-41 is capable of bypassing advanced missile defense systems.
In September 2024, China conducted a test of the DF-31AG missile from Hainan Island, demonstrating its ability to project credible nuclear power. With an estimated range of 11,700 km, the missile can strike Washington, DC, reinforcing China’s strategic posture. This test, coinciding with the anniversary of the commissioning of the *Liaoning* aircraft carrier, was perceived as a signal to the United States and its allies.
Currently, China operates approximately 140 missile silos. With the anticipated completion of its silo fields, this number could rise to 450, surpassing the 400 silos maintained by the United States. This rapid expansion raises concerns about the global strategic balance, as such developments could solidify China’s strategy of mutual assured destruction.
International reactions to China’s advancements have been significant. While the United States acknowledged prior notification of missile tests, concerns over China’s expanding nuclear capabilities persist. Japan, frequently subject to airspace incursions, has criticized China’s limited transparency. Meanwhile, Australia and New Zealand have expressed skepticism and are closely monitoring the developments.
Regionally, China’s military build-up has a profound impact. Its growing capabilities could escalate tensions around Taiwan and in the South and East China Seas. Initiatives such as AUKUS and the Quad have emerged as counterbalances to China’s increasing influence, with nations like India carefully observing these trends.
As China bolsters its military capabilities, the question remains whether these efforts will preserve peace or heighten the risk of conflict. While China asserts its intention to avoid war, its military growth, coupled with intensifying rivalry with the United States, increases the likelihood of miscalculation. Navigating this new era of strategic competition will require careful balancing of deterrence and diplomacy.
China’s progress in ICBM development reflects a profound shift in its role on the global stage. These advancements enhance its nuclear deterrence while posing significant challenges to regional and international stability. How these changes are managed will determine whether they lead to a rebalanced strategic order or heightened tensions.
