It’s been a tough past year and a half for Jakob Pelletier. After dealing with a serious injury last season, he failed to make an impact upon his return to the lineup and ended up back in the AHL. He even found himself sitting on waivers and available for any team in the NHL to grab just a few months ago.
However, as we now shift into the second half of the season, Pelletier once again looks like his old self with the Calgary Flames. He’s shown us once again why there was so much hype around him coming out of the QMJHL. It’s time to admit that Pelletier belongs in the NHL for the long haul.
Pelletier’s road back to the NHL
Make no mistake, it’s been an incredibly tough start to his NHL career for Jakob Pelletier. After bursting onto the scene in 2022–23 and looking all the parts of an NHLer, Pelletier has suffered a series of major setbacks. Coming into the 2023–24 season, the 2022 first-round pick was seen as a lock to make the NHL roster and a very likely mainstay in the lineup. As we all know, he suffered a major injury in preseason that would cost him five months of action.
By the time he finally returned to the lineup in February, Pelletier had lasted just four games before suffering an injury to the exact same shoulder that had kept him out of action for five months. From there on out Pelletier just never looked the same that season, playing without the same energy and tenacity that became a staple of his game. As such, he was demoted to the AHL just over a month after returning.
A shaky start to the year
His struggles continued in the minors, posting just nine points in 14 AHL games, a far cry from his previous point-per-game production in the AHL. This past fall, Pelletier came into training camp once again looking like a shell of his former self, disappearing into the background all too often in what should’ve been his big comeback preseason showing.
His poor play failed to earn him a spot on the NHL roster, and the team controversially placed the young winger on waivers, leaving him open to every team in the NHL to claim. It was a shocking fall from grace from a player who posted 99 points in 101 AHL games before his 22nd birthday.
After clearing waivers, it seemed as though time was running out for Pelletier to make his claim as an NHL player. At this point in his career, he had gone from one of the organization’s top prospects to almost an afterthought with the big club. Yet here we are, after Pelletier churned out near point-per-game production in the AHL to start the season, he earned a call-up to the big club in December and hasn’t looked back. He now once again looks like an NHLer and a piece of the Flames future.
Pelletier’s production so far in 2024–25
As mentioned above, Pelletier was an incredibly productive pro during his first two years in the AHL before seeing his production drop last year. The good news is after clearing waivers and heading back down to the Wranglers, Pelletier was back to his old ways in the AHL this season. In 20 games with the Wranglers, Pelletier put up 19 points. A total equal to about 0.95 points per game. Across a full AHL season, that’s good for right around 68 points in 72 games. He was once again on offensive leader on the Wranglers and one of their most important players during his time there this season.
Raw totals
In the NHL, Pelletier has been just as good, seeing his numbers rise back up and even surpass his totals from the 2022–23 season. Here’s how his numbers look so far in 17 games since being recalled.
| GP | Goals | Assists | Points | P/GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Pelletier | 17 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.47 |
So far this season, Pelletier has been producing at a much higher rate than we’ve ever seen from him at the NHL level. Now of course it’s an incredibly small sample size, but any type of NHL production is impressive right now for a player who went unclaimed on waivers just a few months ago. Pelletier hit eight points in his 16th game of the season, passing his 2022–23 total in eight fewer games. His 0.47 points per game rate translates to about 39 points across an entire season.
Again, we need to remember the sample size is very small. However considering just how bad things looked for Pelletier’s outlook back in October, to see him producing at a near 40-point clip is incredibly promising for his future in the NHL. He’s already posted double the points in the NHL this season compared to both Kevin Rooney and Ryan Lomberg who have played double the amount of games. Pelletier may never be a top-six point producer, but as long as he’s producing like he is right now, he should have a home on an NHL roster.
Underlying totals
It’s not just his point production that has caught people’s eye though. Pelletier has been a legitimately strong player at 5v5 this season, pacing the Flames in some major categories.
The number in brackets represents Pelletier’s rank among Flames forwards with at least 150 minutes this season. All numbers are 5v5, score- and venue-adjusted courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com.
| GP | CF% | xGF% | HDCF% | CF/60 | xGF/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Pelletier | 54.97% (1st) | 58.16% (1st) | 50.62% (6th) | 66.76 (1st) | 3.3 (1st) |
Your eyes do not deceive you. Pelletier is the team leader in CF%, xGF%, CF/60 and xGF/60 among all Flames forwards with 150 minutes played. He’s been that good during his 17-game NHL stint this season. Since making his way back into the NHL a month ago, Pelletier has arguably been the team’s best even strength forward in his 166 minutes of ice time.
It’s a testament to how far he’s come in the last couple of months that he went from an unclaimed prospect on waivers to playing some incredibly strong 5v5 hockey and leading the charge on the Flames roster when it comes to controlling the shot and goal chance share with him on the ice.
Below are Pelletier’s impacts on offence so far this season, breaking down his overall impact on expected goals when he is on the ice. There’s no way around it, the Flames are simply a better team offensively when Pelletier is out there. He’s once again found his game, constantly buzzing around the offensive zone, wreaking havoc, and applying a constant forecheck. It’s leading to plenty of shots and chances for the Flames, with the team generating a ton with Pelletier out there. Here’s how Calgary’s 5v5 offence fares when Pelletier is on the ice, courtesy of HockeyViz.com.
The doubters are quiet
There were plenty of doubters out there piling on Pelletier after his poor form after returning from injury last season, and even more after he cleared waivers in October. Yet here we are just a few short months later, and Pelletier is playing at a 40-point pace while posting some team-best underlying numbers. There’s a long way to go before Pelletier is considered a long-term NHLer, but what his 17-game stint this season has taught us is that it’s far too soon to count him out.
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